UK Markets Outlook Upside risks, but scope for big rate cuts in 2024 The recent resilience in economic activity and stubbornness of inflation is raising market rate expectations, gilt yields, UK equities and the pound. And there is a growing risk that interest rates... 26th April 2023 · 13 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Partway through the correction While house price declines have slowed and economic activity has proven more resilient than expected over the three months since our last Outlook, we are sticking to our forecast that house prices... 26th April 2023 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong supply to drag on Spanish industrial rents Industrial occupier demand in Spain is set to slow sharply this year and next, as the economy falls into recession. And with both Madrid and Barcelona poised to see a record level of speculative... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: The euro-zone inflation outlook and the ECB May meeting 2nd May 2023, 3:00PM BST What do recent data signal about recession risk in the euro-zone? How high will the ECB take the policy rate to rein in inflation pressure?
UK Data Response Public Finances (Mar.) The news that total borrowing in 2022/23 was £13.2bn lower than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted only a month ago provides the Chancellor with more wiggle room to cut taxes and/or... 25th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack The monetary policy tide is (slowly) turning EM central banks have, in general, remained in hawkish mood over recent weeks. Tightening cycles have continued in Mexico, Colombia and South Africa in response to high inflation, while policymakers... 24th April 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Early yield correction gives retail an advantage A fall in consumption this year will weigh on the retail sector, but an earlier correction in yields and rents mean it is less vulnerable to the recession. Indeed, it was the only sector to see a fall... 24th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) The Ifo Business Climate Index rose again in April but remained in contractionary territory. This is contrast to the PMIs which point to much stronger economic performance at the start of Q2. 24th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) March’s activity data out of Poland were weaker than expected and suggest the economy may now be in a technical recession. Activity may start to bottom out soon, but we don’t think the economy is set... 24th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Assessing the physical climate change risks to property The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Undervalued krone likely to rebound later this year The Norwegian krone has been the worst G10 performer against the US dollar by some way in recent months. Though lower energy prices and weakening risk sentiment have likely played a role, we suspect... 21st April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB shifting to cuts, Turkey bracing for election result The Hungarian central bank (MNB) looks set to take its first steps towards lowering interest rates at its meeting next week by cutting the upper end of its interest rate corridor. Policymakers will... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation a persistent problem for the Bank of England Lingering underlying price pressures and the continued resilience of economic activity has left us more comfortable than we were at the start of this week with our view that the Bank of England will... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
