Europe Commercial Property Update German office values fall faster than after the GFC Early data indicate that German offices saw the steepest increases in yields on record in late 2022. And we think that with policy rates set to go higher, it is too early to rule out further rises in... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) A further slump in mortgage approvals in December, to the lowest level since the height of the pandemic, confirmed that the extremely high cost of mortgage borrowing has caused more buyers to withdraw... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) December’s money and credit figures revealed that higher interest rates further dampened economic activity at the end of last year. Moreover, the drag on activity will continue to intensify this year... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 was better than we feared a few months ago but the economy excluding Ireland still flat-lined. As the data deteriorated towards the end of the quarter and... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank lending Survey (Q4 2022) Much like the latest money and credit data, the Q4 Bank Lending Survey painted a much more downbeat picture of economic prospects than the latest business surveys. Banks are tightening their lending... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Financial conditions, central banks, and recessions The Fed, ECB and BoE meet later this week and we wouldn’t be surprised if they take the chance to push back against the recent loosening in financial conditions. And even if their words don’t have... 30th January 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Fixed-rate loans delay and reduce effect of higher rates The shift away from floating-rate to fixed-rate mortgages presents risks as well as benefits. It will protect homeowners who are lucky enough to have a long time remaining on their fixed rate contract... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Worse to come, but UK assets to outperform in 2024 While an improvement in appetite for risk has fuelled a strong start to 2023 by UK equities and sterling, we doubt this will remain a source of support as recessions in the US, the UK and the euro... 30th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The improvement in economic sentiment in January is consistent with the picture painted by other surveys. But the high level of firms’ selling price expectations shows that the ECB’s work is far from... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) Economic sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe picked up again in most countries in January and our regional-weighted measure hit a four-month high. We still think that GDP in most countries will... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2022) The fall in German GDP in Q4 shows that the energy crisis started to dent activity at the end of last year. This pours cold water on the recent optimism about the prospects for the euro-zone and... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2022) The 4.9% increase in Polish GDP over 2022 as a whole is consistent with a slowdown in growth to around 1.6% y/y in Q4 and a small quarterly decline in output of around 0.5% q/q, confirming that the... 30th January 2023 · 2 mins read
