Chief Economist's Note From upbeat to apocalyptic: making sense of the AI headlines It’s become almost too easy to knock Davos in a post-pandemic, fracturing world. The World Economic Forum may not be part of the solution to the world’s problems that its marketing team would have us... 22nd January 2024
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar grinds higher alongside rising equities and UST yields The US dollar’s rebound has gained momentum this week amid hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and more evidence out of the US – notably retail sales and jobless claims – of continued resilience in... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Green demand to spur copper price gains in 2024 After a subdued 2023, we think the copper price will fare much better this year. We expect supply growth to moderate, while demand growth will be bolstered by the green transition. 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Energy prices are not that high in real terms Energy prices seem historically high at first glance. However, that is not strictly the case. After adjusting for inflation, oil and US natural gas prices are already at or below pre-pandemic levels... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The impact of AI on non-US stock markets While we think that enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence (AI) will mean that equities in the US keep outperforming this year, we see scope for equities in the rest of the world to fare quite well... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Green Transition Chart Pack Green Transition Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Green Transition Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a period of upward pressure on renewable and battery costs in recent years, the... 18th January 2024 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: What to expect from financial markets in 2024 1706108400 Will US equities continue to lead the pack in 2024? How will monetary policymaking affect the level of yields? What will this mean for FX markets?
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The stalemate in currency markets continues After a strong start to the year, the US dollar seems set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, as inflation data releases out of the US this week failed to generate much of a... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports to hold firm, for now China’s commodity imports were generally strong in 2023 and while growth rates will probably slow this year, we expect volumes to remain high in the coming months. 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What Taiwan’s election could mean for markets This Update discusses how we think Taiwan’s election this weekend – which could be another flashpoint in Taiwan-China relations – might affect global equity markets, in aggregate and across some key... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the... 11th January 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Industrial metals price weakness rolls over into 2024 This week was a mixed bag for commodities. As tensions in the Middle East continued to rise, oil prices edged up despite an increase in US petroleum product stocks pointing to sluggish demand... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Overview Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the big declines in energy prices are now behind us. Oil prices will remain... 5th January 2024 · 0 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Energy Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy prices will fall in 2024, although we think the big falls are now behind us. Supply has not... 4th January 2024 · 1 min read