Global Economics Update Key questions after the latest central bank meetings We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss the latest policy meetings of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England and what they might mean for the future path of policy and financial markets. (See the recording... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update How DM bonds might fare as easing cycles gather pace We expect long-dated government bond yields in most developed market economies to fall over the remainder of this year and next, as central banks shift focus to monetary easing. But, in some cases, we... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt hawkish rhetoric will stop yields from falling Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic, we still expect most long-dated government bond yields in developed markets to fall over the next couple of years. 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update A tipping point for global monetary policy Despite all the talk of “higher for longer”, we believe that the global monetary policy tightening cycle is drawing to a close. In Q4, any final rate hikes in advanced economies will coincide with a... 21st September 2023 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (August) An increase in year-on-year production growth, coupled with upward revisions to the back data, means that global aluminium supply is much stronger than previously thought. Production reached a record... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Rishi Sunak draws his UK climate battle lines The news that UK Prime Minster Sunak is set to further dilute the government’s climate policies demonstrates that when the political going gets tough, climate policies are the first to fall by the... 20th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game-changer for inflation We are not convinced that the increase in oil prices has set the stage for a sustained rebound in inflation. Accordingly, there is little chance that developed market central banks will resume or... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Quenching global demand for water will add to costs Supplies of freshwater are likely to become scarcer over time as the world heats up and precipitation patterns change. While investment into infrastructure and boosting desalination capacity can help... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold price has further to fall by year-end Based on our view that US economic growth will prove resilient, despite the rise in interest rates, and that US inflation will ease, we expect the gold price to fall to $1,800 per ounce by year-end. 15th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore rally on borrowed time We think the recent rally in the iron ore price will soon go into reverse. Steel demand in China has surged in recent months, but we think that will prove temporary. China’s steelmakers should cut... 14th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) While economic activity was generally more resilient than feared in the first half of 2023, there are growing signs that many major economies are losing momentum. We expect most advanced economies to... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: Oil prices and the threat to the global inflation outlook 1695128400 The recent surge in oil prices is fuelling concerns about an inflationary resurgence that could upset central bank monetary policy plans. But how worried should investors be?
Global Economics Update What will it take to bring down wage growth? Although wage growth is clearly falling in the US, the same cannot be said for the UK and euro-zone despite some evidence of labour markets cooling there too. A further fall in inflation expectations... 13th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update G20 underlines that fracturing is becoming a reality The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The greenback grinds higher and “carry” currencies crack The US dollar looks set to end the week higher against nearly all other major currencies. Remarkably, the DXY Index is set for an eight consecutive weekly rise, something that has rarely occurred... 8th September 2023 · 8 mins read