Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Event Drop-In: Why “higher for longer” won’t survive – and what it means for markets 1697032800 Markets have been in a febrile mood amid a growing belief that central banks will need to keep interest rates at elevated levels in order to properly throttle inflation.
Global Economics Update PMIs: Lower core goods inflation in the pipeline September’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity stagnated at the end of Q3, and forward-looking indicators point to further weakness ahead. The recent rise in oil prices seemed... 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” may not see the new year The higher-for-longer narrative took hold over the third quarter, pushing bonds and equities down in most markets. But we doubt that this narrative will last. We expect bond markets to rebound as... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (October 2023) The valuations of “risky” assets have only been undermined a little by the big rise in the yields of “safe” assets in recent months. We think that the valuations of risky assets may fall a bit more in... 2nd October 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally at risk of reversal as tailwinds fade The week is set to end with the US dollar a bit higher against most currencies and the DXY Index just below fresh year-to-date highs. The dollar’s latest gains coincide with yet another week of rising... 29th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil also higher for longer There wasn’t a clear trend in commodity prices this week. Natural gas prices in the US and Europe were among the largest risers, though those increases appear to have been driven by dips in regional... 29th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The trouble before the bubble Both “safe” and “risky” assets have struggled during Q3 so far, as “risk-free” yields have risen. We expect the fortunes of safe assets to improve over the rest of this year, largely informed by our... 28th September 2023 · 23 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Dollar’s “stronger for longer” rally may run out of road The US dollar’s record run of 10 consecutive weekly gains has brought it to its strongest level since last December, and prompted renewed talk of FX intervention in Asia. We think that market... 28th September 2023 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Update Downturn in global trade set to deepen further Global goods trade fell at its fastest pace since the pandemic in July and the timelier trade and survey data point to further declines in August and September. What’s more, given that we still expect... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bonds & stocks may rally as "higher for longer" unravels We think the “higher-for-longer” narrative that has taken hold in the market won’t last through 2024. We suspect that central banks will generally cut faster than investors seem to expect and that, as... 28th September 2023 · 14 mins read
Climate Economics Update Taking stock of green investment needs Investment in the green transition is unlikely to rise quickly enough this decade to help achieve net zero by 2050. But a greater focus on areas including renewables and electric vehicles will still... 25th September 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The rally in the US dollar appears to be losing steam Amid the flurry of central bank announcements, the Fed doubling down on “higher for longer” proved to be enough for the greenback to eke out small gains against most other currencies, taking the DXY... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read