Global Economics Update No near-term turnaround on the cards for world trade While global goods trade rose in September, timelier indicators suggest that it has softened so far in Q4. And with props to Chinese exports likely to prove temporary, and advanced economies set to... 29th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Putting COP-season into perspective With COP-season upon us once again, this Update offers a brief guide to this year’s spectacle. In short, with the incentives for countries to act in their self-interests as strong as ever, the... 29th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs continue to point to stagnation in DMs The S&P Global PMIs have provided misleading signals about the strength of activity in the US and Europe this year. But, for what it’s worth, the flash surveys for November suggest that DMs are ending... 24th November 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Global backdrop proves “just right” for more USD weakness Currencies were no exception to the calm across markets, and the US dollar seems set the end the week a bit lower against most currencies. While “more of the same” downbeat data out of the euro-zone... 24th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ won’t let prices slide Moves in commodity prices have been fairly muted on the week, but this masks a dramatic mid-week plunge and recovery in oil prices. The big news was that OPEC+ announced a four-day delay to its policy... 24th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Breaking down US equities’ recent success US equities’ outperformance this year is due almost entirely to the few industries that include “Big Tech” firms, as the rest of the US stock market fared similarly to equities in the rest of the... 22nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: The global economy in 2024 – Key themes/core risks 1701763200 A team of our senior economists recently held a special online briefing all about the key economic themes which will shape 2024.
Global Economics Focus Government debt sustainability back under the spotlight Shifts in the long-term outlook for interest rates relative to GDP growth have left the fiscal position in most developed economies looking more precarious. Unless governments manage to reduce their... 21st November 2023 · 23 mins read
Climate Economics Update Key insights from our new CE Climate Reporting Tools Our new set of CE Climate Reporting Tools covers all of the macroeconomic elements needed to navigate climate change and the green transition. This powerful and extensive collection of interactive and... 21st November 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) While the US economy considerably outperformed its DM peers in Q3, we think that all advanced economies will suffer a weak Q4. High interest rates are weighing on credit growth, and a further rise in... 17th November 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Update Business Outlook surveys flag upside inflation risks We expect growth to slow and inflation to drop to central bank targets in major DMs in 2024. But the latest business expectations surveys on the face of it suggest that the risks to our forecasts are... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks and the Three Bull Markets Investors seem to be banking on a “Goldilocks” US economic environment which, if sustained, might lead to bull markets for most bonds, equities, and currencies. But we think this is a bit optimistic. 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read