Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB makes a hawkish U-turn The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its two-week repo rate on hold at 0.25% today and backtracked on its recent dovish guidance about the timing of policy tightening. We expect a first 25bp interest... 6th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1 2021) The 0.3% q/q drop in Czech GDP in Q1 was slightly better than expected and, with authorities now moving to relax virus restrictions, we expect a strong recovery to take hold in the second half of this... 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prague prime pricing supportive of industrial yield falls We think that past movements in Czech bond yields mean that they are less appropriate to use in our valuation calculations. Using alternative bond benchmarks, re-calculated metrics support the view... 11th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strong Czech recovery despite rise in cases The Czech Republic has seen a renewed surge in virus cases in recent weeks and now has one of the worst outbreaks in Europe. While this poses a growing downside risk to the outlook, it has not changed... 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC strikes a conservative tone The Czech central bank delivered a larger-than-expected interest rate cut at today’s MPC meeting but also disappointed those that had expected some unconventional measures to be announced to support... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC to step up its policy support The Czech central bank followed up last week’s emergency interest rate cut with further easing today and opened the door to use other measures to support the economy and stabilise the financial system... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prague offices to still outperform CEE Despite softer occupier activity and an increasing pipeline of supply, we think that demand will be strong enough to prop up office rental growth over the next two years. That said, given that we now... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Czech rate hike to be a one-off The statement and press conference following today’s MPC meeting confirmed that the surprise decision to hike interest rates by 25bp, to 2.25%, will be a one-off. Policymakers will probably maintain a... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus of Czech MPC to switch from hikes to cuts The statement following today’s MPC meeting confirmed that the Czech central bank is still concerned about above-target inflation and the need to hike interest rates. But with the economy likely to... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: gradual shift to easing next year The communications following today’s meeting suggest that Czech policymakers are trying to temper the market’s view that interest rates will be cut in the coming months. Nonetheless, the Bank’s... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish rates, Ukraine elections, Czech tightening cycle Turkish financial markets took Thursday’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut in their stride but we don’t think that this resilience will last. Investors seems to be coming round to our view that... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Upside risk to our Prague industrial rent forecasts The Czech economy has slowed over the past 18 months, which, alongside strong new development, has kept industrial rents in check. But, with signs of renewed vigour in occupier demand and rents... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech underperformance unlikely to continue The Czech economy has underperformed its regional peers in recent years due to its larger exposure to the euro-zone and weaker household spending. However, the Czech slowdown is close to bottoming out... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech tightening cycle comes to an end The interest rate hike at today’s monetary policy meeting probably marks the end of the Czech National Bank’s tightening cycle. While we think that the currency will fail to appreciate by as much as... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) The rise in Czech inflation to a six-year high of 3.0% y/y in March was driven primarily by a pick-up in food inflation and probably is not enough to convince the central bank to hike rates next month... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
