Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Sep.) The rise in Czech inflation to a five-year high of 2.7% y/y in September supports our view that the next hike in the policy interest rate – taking it from 0.25% to 0.50% – will come at the CNB Board... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP may have expanded by as much as 5% y/y in Q3. However, this probably marks the peak for growth and... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC set to hike in November The Czech MPC’s decision to keep rates on hold today was a very close call and we think that an interest rate hike at the next MPC meeting on 2nd November is highly likely. Following that, our central... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) & Czech CPI (August) Turkey’s economy had a strong Q2 and growth is set to be even quicker in Q3. But that’s likely to mark the peak in the cycle and we think the economy will slow more abruptly than most expect in 2018... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Domestic demand in the driving seat Recently-released GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe showed that strengthening consumer spending and investment drove the pick-up in aggregate economic growth to a nine... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe suggest that economic growth has remained robust in Q3. That said, we think that the third quarter will mark a peak for growth across the region. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth has remained robust in Q3, at around 4.5% y/y, but also that growth is now peaking. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update New industrial supply will keep prime rents in Czech Industrial rents in the Czech Republic have climbed this year on the back of declining vacancy and may see another step up in 2018. However, low yields – and high capital values – will support... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2017) Today’s strong batch of Q2 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe support our above-consensus growth forecasts for this year as a whole. Looking ahead, GDP growth is likely to peak in Q3 in... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jul.) July’s stronger-than-expected Czech inflation data support our view that the National Bank’s monetary tightening cycle will be more aggressive than the markets are pricing in. While our central view... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: Tight labour markets point to more hikes than most expect We think that natural unemployment rates have fallen by 2.5-3.0%-pts in Central & Eastern Europe over the past decade. Even so, actual rates of unemployment are now significantly below these (lower)... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC starts gradual tightening cycle The statement accompanying the Czech MPC’s meeting, at which it hiked interest rates for the first time in nine years, was relatively dovish and adds to the impression that this will be a gradual... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
