Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: More tightening in 2018 & 2019 The statement and press conference following today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the Council resumed its tightening cycle – were on the hawkish side, supporting our view that further rate hikes are... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2018) & Czech CPI (May) The Turkish economy grew by a faster-than-expected 7.4% y/y in Q1 but, crucially, this predates the recent financial market turmoil. An abrupt slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters. 11th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) & Czech GDP (Q1) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs fell in most of Emerging Europe, reinforcing our view that regional growth has peaked. The PMI plunged to a nine-year low in Turkey, which is the first sign that the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hikes, but likely to pause next month The statement accompanying today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the policy interest rate was hiked by 25bp – suggests that the Council will hold fire at its next meeting on 29th March. Even so, we... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech coalition negotiations likely to be a long drag Events over the past 24 hours have confirmed our view that, while the centre-right ANO party would prevail in the country’s elections, the challenging part will be forming a coalition government... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Consumer recovery strengthens The latest economic data suggest that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3 and one of the main drivers behind this appears to have been stronger consumer spending. Retail sales... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A look ahead to the Czech elections The centre-right ANO is likely to emerge as the single largest party in Friday’s parliamentary election in the Czech Republic, which may open the door to looser fiscal policy. That said, there are... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Sep.) The rise in Czech inflation to a five-year high of 2.7% y/y in September supports our view that the next hike in the policy interest rate – taking it from 0.25% to 0.50% – will come at the CNB Board... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP may have expanded by as much as 5% y/y in Q3. However, this probably marks the peak for growth and... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC set to hike in November The Czech MPC’s decision to keep rates on hold today was a very close call and we think that an interest rate hike at the next MPC meeting on 2nd November is highly likely. Following that, our central... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2) & Czech CPI (August) Turkey’s economy had a strong Q2 and growth is set to be even quicker in Q3. But that’s likely to mark the peak in the cycle and we think the economy will slow more abruptly than most expect in 2018... 11th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Domestic demand in the driving seat Recently-released GDP breakdowns for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe showed that strengthening consumer spending and investment drove the pick-up in aggregate economic growth to a nine... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe suggest that economic growth has remained robust in Q3. That said, we think that the third quarter will mark a peak for growth across the region. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional growth has remained robust in Q3, at around 4.5% y/y, but also that growth is now peaking. 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update New industrial supply will keep prime rents in Czech Industrial rents in the Czech Republic have climbed this year on the back of declining vacancy and may see another step up in 2018. However, low yields – and high capital values – will support... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
