Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to lift cash rate to 4.35%, cuts only in Q2 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25bp today and the hawkish tone of the statement suggests that the risks to our terminal rate forecast of 4.35% are tilted to the upside. Indeed... 6th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Jun. 23) 6th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2022/23 2nd June 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing sector creates headaches for the RBA Although house prices in Australia made further gains in May, we don't think that's a sign that the broader economy will remain resilient in the face of monetary tightening. Indeed, residential... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) With house prices having risen for the third month in a row, there is a growing risk to our view that the housing downturn has further to run. Nonetheless, with rising interest rates set to squeeze... 1st June 2023 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to lift rates to 4.35% by July With inflation set to overshoot the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts this quarter, we’re now pencilling in two more 25bp rate hikes, including one at the upcoming meeting on 6th June. And we don... 31st May 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr. 23) While the pick-up in inflation in April mostly reflects base effects from the excise duty cut a year ago, trimmed mean CPI picked up as well. With inflation set to overshoot the RBA’s forecasts this... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Apr. 23) 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Electricity will become a drag on inflation next year Electricity inflation will become the highest since the 1980s this year, but with generation costs having plunged, we’ve pencilled in a big drop next year. Those movements probably won’t affect... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr. 23) Coupled with rising unemployment and lukewarm wage growth, the weakness in retail sales in April supports our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia is done hiking interest rates. 26th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tight supply limits US and UK house price falls The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy divergence and what it could mean for markets Coming monetary policy divergence may have implications for sovereign bond markets, but we doubt it will be the key driver of FX markets where we think the threat of a recession looms. 24th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle is at an end The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 25bp, to 5.50%, was in line with what most had anticipated. However, with the Bank sounding more dovish than it has in... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read