Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does oil at $90pb mean for the Gulf? With oil prices at current levels, nearly all of the Gulf economies are running twin budget and current account surpluses. We think that governments are more likely to save rather than spend this... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to drive a pick-up in regional growth in 2022 The recovery across the Middle East and North Africa is likely to gather pace this year, due in large part to the Gulf where rising oil output will cause GDP growth to pick up to rates well above... 25th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf governments to keep fiscal policy tight Governments across the Gulf have begun to unveil their 2022 budgets and tight fiscal policy remains the order of the day. Saudi Arabia outlined a 6% cut in spending next year that is expected to push... 15th December 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Energy market poses downside risk to the Gulf OPEC+ left the door open last week to change its oil output policy before the next meeting and, if output is raised more slowly or not at all, this would knock GDP growth back mechanically in the Gulf... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack MENA and the Omicron risks The Middle East and North African economies are potentially among the most vulnerable to the fallout from the Omicron strain of COVID-19. The North African economies as well as Lebanon and Jordan have... 30th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia unrest, Kuwaiti government, Oman fuel prices Escalating social unrest in Tunisia and opposition to fiscal reforms from the powerful UGTT labour union will make it more difficult for President Saied to push through much-needed fiscal reforms and... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Where are frontier sovereign debt risks greatest? The precipitous decline in Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves means the risk of a near-term sovereign debt default is increasing. Elsewhere, Tunisia also stands out on account of its public debt... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain & Oman: austerity and Gulf help needed The rally in oil prices has opened the door for some of the larger Gulf economies to loosen fiscal policy, but governments in Bahrain and Oman will need to continue tightening to repair their dire... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the energy price surge mean for the Gulf? Higher oil and gas revenues are likely to prompt a modest shift to looser fiscal policy in the large Gulf economies, although Bahrain and Oman will still need to stick to austerity. Meanwhile, if OPEC... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to outperform Economic recoveries in the Gulf will continue to gather pace over the coming year on the back of successful vaccine rollouts and higher oil output, and our GDP growth forecasts lie above the consensus... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE vaccine rollout, Egypt and Oman subsidy reversals The announcement that the price of state-subsidised bread in Egypt will be raised adds to our view that inflation will drift higher and that the central bank will hold off from cutting rates for now... 5th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Oman and the IMF, vaccines in Egypt The failure of OPEC+ to reach an agreement over new output quotas has raised the likelihood that the deal collapses and the Gulf states ramp up production. Elsewhere, Oman has asked for IMF assistance... 8th July 2021 · 6 mins read