Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: fiscal rule not the last word on budget discipline In the absence of a new IMF programme, a fiscal rule could help to reassure markets that Turkey remains committed to maintaining fiscal discipline. But even a well designed fiscal rule requires... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What's the best use of a consumption tax hike? Finance Minister Kan's suggestion that any hike in the consumption tax should be used to increase government spending would risk backfiring in the markets. Even if increased public spending in certain... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The third successive monthly increase in consumer confidence suggests that household spending in Japan is unlikely to collapse once the initial boost from government measures has faded. Inflation... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Has the trade boost arrived? Last week’s trade figures could signal that the external sector is finally set to provide the economy with a decent amount of support. But we would be cautious about reading too much into the... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Show us the money! Despite the firmer details provided on the Greek rescue package, markets have made it crystal clear that they have deep reservations about the bailout. Before even considering lending on more... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand will probably reach a compromise soon The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is virtually certain to leave the repo rate unchanged at 1.25% at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Economic conditions probably warrant a move up in the policy rate... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil set to begin tightening monetary policy Interest rate hikes in the region are imminent. We think that a 50bps hike in Brazil this month is almost a done deal, with Peru is likely to follow suit in June. Meanwhile Colombia, and now Chile... 16th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Mar.) & Trade (Feb.) On the face of it, March’s sharp rise in euro-zone CPI inflation may look a little alarming. But with a fundamental lack of inflationary pressure in the economy, deflation rather than a surge in... 16th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook The house price recovery will soon go into reverse (Q2 2010) The risks that house price falls would take longer to materialise than we had been expecting, and which we flagged in the previous Analyst, have been borne out. We have therefore cut our forecast for... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Changes at the top do not change outlook for policy (Apr 10) Both Poland and the Czech Republic are set to announce new Central Bank governors over the coming months. But we suspect this will do little to alter the policy bias in either country. Poland will be... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could a banking crisis add to Greek woes? Greek bond yields have continued to surge as doubts remain over whether the euro-zone will actually be able to provide financial support to Greece. But a growing worry is that the ongoing crisis... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India is virtually certain to tighten again next week Wholesale price data released today in India were not as bad as widely expected. Nevertheless, the only uncertainty ahead of the 20th April monetary review meeting is whether policy rates move up by... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA Governor confirmed but bond swap delayed 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Soft spending prospects to restrain leisure property Tuesday’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that high street spending continues to hold up well. Off the high street, however, things are not so rosy, especially for spending on leisure services... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
