UK Data Response UK Trade (Feb.) & BRC Retail Sales (Mar.) February’s trade figures finally brought some good news about the exporting side of the economy. But there is a long way to go before the external sector can fully compensate for the weakness in the... 13th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices (Mar/Feb) The message from March’s RICS survey is that the housing market recovery has stalled. The forward-looking balances, in particular, did nothing to alter our view that 2009’s rise in house prices will... 13th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will Irish bank rescue plan derail commercial property recovery? With Irish investors having been such big players during the most recent commercial property boom across Europe, there are now concerns (highlighted, for example, in a recent Property Week) that the... 13th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will Irish bank rescue plan derail commercial property recovery? With Irish investors having been such big players during the most recent commercial property boom across Europe, there are now concerns (highlighted, for example, in a recent Property Week) that the... 13th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three priorities for Ukraine’s new government A series of policy announcements that are due over the next week or so, including a draft 2010 Budget, should give a clearer idea of the priorities of Ukraine’s new government. Reforms in three areas... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How strong are speculative inflows? Speculative inflows into China’s economy were weak in the first quarter, but they seem to have picked up in the last few weeks as expectations have strengthened that the renminbi’s appreciation... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks increase again The shocking weekend events in Bangkok could make it more difficult to reach a compromise on the date of new elections, or may bring new urgency to the negotiations. We suspect that new elections will... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fidesz romps to victory, but will inherit fiscal frailties The markets have welcomed Fidesz’s landslide victory in yesterday’s election in Hungary. But with a distinct lack of policy detail from the party so far, we remain only cautiously optimistic that its... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Money (Mar.) Just as the surge in bank lending in late 2008 was hardly evidence of strength in Japan's economy, the recent year-on-year declines may not be a sign of renewed weakness. What's more, in contrast to... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What does renminbi appreciation mean for the yen? Speculation of an imminent resumption of renminbi appreciation has been supporting other Asian currencies against the dollar, including the yen. However, we would give this factor very little weight... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore set to tighten policy The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) meets on Wednesday and, we forecast, will shift to an appreciation bias on the SGD nominal effective exchange rate. Q1 GDP growth was almost certainly very... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Modest industrial recovery on track Last week’s further blow-out in Greek bond yields suggests that any slim chances that Greece had of muddling through its crisis on its own have all but evaporated. Some form of rescue - or at least a... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
