UK Economics Weekly Industry can’t drive a strong recovery Having been largely overlooked as a sector in inexorable decline for the last decade or more, attention has recently re-focused on industry as a potential source of growth to offset the likely... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar.) China’s first monthly trade deficit in six years might win it some respite from pressure to do more over its exchange rate, particularly if followed, as we expect, by a resumption of renminbi... 10th April 2010 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Upside inflation risks still low (even in China) (Q1 2010) Immediate fears of deflation have eased as the global economy has begun to recover. But looking beyond the headlines, underlying price pressures remain subdued and are likely to fall further. The full... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Bank of Korea Governor in no hurry to hike The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. New BoK Governor Kim is sympathetic to the government view that monetary tightening can be delayed, while imminent elections... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response NBS business conditions survey (Q1) Chinese firms are increasingly confident. In particular, large state-owned firms have rapidly recovered their optimism. But smaller businesses remain more subdued, which probably means that employment... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Producer Prices (Mar.) March’s surprisingly strong rise in UK producer prices will prompt some concern that pipeline inflation pressures are building. But there are good reasons not to be too concerned. 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will lower net migration push rents lower? Net migration has been a major contributor to the growth of the private rented sector in recent years but, unless it drops considerably further, the recession-driven drop in migration is unlikely to... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banks in good shape but credit growth slowing 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Who’s been hit hardest by the credit squeeze? On the whole, firms, rather than households, have borne the brunt of the credit squeeze in Emerging Europe. In fact, lending to consumers has already started to pick up in those countries with... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Capital Daily ECB should remain in no hurry to raise official interest rates 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation creeping up in Latin America, but for different reasons 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Downbeat ECB to maintain strong policy support While President Trichet sought to reassure markets today that aid would be provided for Greece if necessary, his call for aggressive fiscal tightening there and elsewhere underlined the prospect of... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC waits for news on fiscal squeeze Estimates of the financial cost to the UK airline industry of the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland are mounting. But we doubt that the economic cost of the eruption will have a... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fall in euro-zone retail sales highlights the challenges facing retailers February’s 0.6% monthly fall in euro-zone retail sales volumes suggests that occupier demand for retail space is still weak in the single currency region. And given that the occupier market outlook... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks should stay contained Yesterday’s declaration of a state of emergency in Thailand could mark the start of a dangerous escalation in the confrontation between street protestors and the government. But while the stand-off... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s data on German industrial production and euro-zone retail sales put a dent in hopes that, after stagnating in Q4 last year, the euro-zone economy will have expanded strongly again in Q1. 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
