Latin America Economics Update Argentina is losing competitiveness, and quickly 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Stronger data unlikely to prompt rate hike There are still few signs that Andrew Sentance’s view that interest rates need to rise is gathering much support from the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). In fact, the minutes of the last... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam's muddled policy-making gets what is deserved The Fitch downgrade of Vietnam’s foreign currency debt, announced today, was no surprise. Over the last six months domestic policies have see-sawed between fighting inflation and boosting growth while... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's central bank likely to pause early The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) lifted its cash rate by 25bp to 3.0% overnight, as expected. Exports should remain a bright spot but domestic indicators have been softer than anticipated by the RBNZ and will... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jul.) July’s improvement in the EC consumer and business surveys adds to the evidence that the euro-zone is performing surprisingly well. But divergences between the region’s economies are widening. 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Underlying trends in retail spending still positive The slowdown in the annual growth of retail sales reflects both the fading of the boost from government subsidies for car purchases and changes in fuel price inflation. Sales excluding both autos and... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The recent pick-up in the Monetary Policy Committee’s favoured measure of the money supply may already be fading. Meanwhile, bank lending is still struggling to rise. 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Q2) Net lending to commercial property in Q2 was very weak. Admittedly, anecdotal evidence suggests that lenders’ wariness to the sector may have eased slightly in more recent weeks. But with their... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) The subdued picture of lending activity was reinforced today as mortgage approvals for house purchase recorded their largest fall for five months. Although we doubt approvals will fall significantly... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) The renewed falls in mortgage market activity are weighing on house prices. With lending unlikely to pick up significantly this year, due to constraints on both supply and demand, recent falls in... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) The drop in the Nationwide house price index in July was hardly a surprise given the generally downbeat signs from other housing market data over the past few weeks. But it adds to the growing body of... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) October’s rise in the Halifax house price index was widely expected, given the size of the previous month’s drop. Moreover, although far stronger than consensus estimates for a 0.6% rise, the... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much do seasonal factors drive gold? Seasonal factors are a poor explanation for the recent weakness in gold prices, which instead mainly reflects lower demand for the precious metal as a safe haven or inflation hedge. Calendar effects... 28th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Stronger surface hides widening cracks (Q3 10) The recent news on the European economy has defied the ongoing concerns over the fiscal crisis in the peripheral countries of the euro-zone. But the recovery in the export and industrial sectors could... 28th July 2010 · 1 min read
