Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkey must save its way to sustainable growth Turkey’s medium-term growth prospects are just about the best in Emerging Europe. But realising the economy’s full potential will require raising domestic savings. If the authorities can achieve this... 4th August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Return of the peg In a series of statements at the end of July, the People’s Bank (PBC) laid out a comprehensive position on the role of the renminbi in China’s broader policy framework. The five articles from Vice... 4th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jul.) July’s UK CIPS/Markit report on services provided further evidence that the economic recovery has cooled since the strong 1.1% quarterly rise in GDP in Q2. 4th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) House prices rose in July, reversing some of the recent falls. But this does not alter our view that prices are set for a period of considerable weakness in the remainder of this year and into 2011. 4th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) House prices rose in July, reversing some of the recent falls. But this does not alter our view that prices are set for a period of considerable weakness in the remainder of this year and into 2011. 4th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: repeat of 2007/08 inflation surge looks unlikely Concerns that the current drought in Russia will trigger a surge in food prices and a wider pick-up in inflation are increasing. However, a number of factors suggest that a repeat of the food-driven... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's industrial slowdown becoming a cause for concern 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How far do Emerging European headline rents respond to FX swings? Our analysis of the recent recession confirms that the volatility of headline retail rents in Emerging Europe can be exacerbated by swings in the exchange rate. Indeed, we estimate that each 1% fall... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone PPI (Jun.)/Spanish Unemp. & Con. Conf. (Jul.) The continued strength of euro-zone producer price inflation, coupled with the recent increase in CPI inflation, may prompt concerns that inflationary pressures are building. But we still expect CPI... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Can the UK survive the squeeze? (Q3 2010) The fiscal contraction is now well and truly underway. However, we doubt that the conditions are in place for the economy to take such a sharp squeeze in its stride. 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's monetary tightening is not over The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.5% today, as was universally anticipated. We expect the mining boom to bring above-trend GDP growth over the next few years and there is... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul 10) The latest PMI reported that commercial property construction activity rose again in July. These data suggest that developers remain confident about a rental recovery by early 2011. Our view is that... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
