UK Economics Weekly How much longer can retail spending hold up? You could be forgiven for being puzzled by the recent data on consumers. After all, figures released last week on retail spending and the housing market gave markedly different signals on the current... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth slowing, not collapsing The rush of data at the end of July has added to doubts about the durability of the economic recovery, with sentiment in the equity market not helped either by further strength in the yen. However... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Peripheral concerns still central On the face of it at least, last week brought good news as economic sentiment rose further in July and there were tentative signs that strains in the banking sector could be easing. But with credit... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia’s cash rate still likely to rise later this year The Reserve Bank (RBA) meets on Tuesday and is almost certain to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.5%, given that Q2 consumer price data were softer than expected. Nonetheless, the mining boom will... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending will struggle to grow during fiscal squeeze (Q3 2010) The sheer scale of the fiscal squeeze means that consumer spending will struggle to rise in the next few years. 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia's industrial sector slowing to a sustainable pace Manufacturing PMIs for emerging Asia and Australia were a mixed bag in July. The world economy is shifting onto a weaker track as policy stimulus is removed, which in turn means that Asia’s industrial... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Signs that house prices are at a turning point (Aug 10) We believe that the downturn in the data in recent months marks the start of a new, weaker trend for the housing market. With a fresh contraction in lending likely in the coming months and a weak... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery reaches its high-point The economy managed a much stronger than expected expansion in the second quarter, with GDP rising by 1.1%. (See Chart.) However, this is likely to be as good as it gets for this stage of the economic... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial recovery continues to slow Manufacturing PMIs fell in every country with the exception of Russia last month, but remain consistent with double-digit annual increases in industrial production. The key question is whether this... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jul.) The latest PMIs provide further evidence that China’s economy is slowing, increasing the likelihood that policy will be loosened during the next few months. 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Fading sentiment signals an end to capital value gains It is pretty clear that property investors’ sentiment has cooled in recent weeks. Accordingly there seems to be little scope for further gains in capital values. But with bond yields likely to stay... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) July’s UK CIPS/Markit report on manufacturing brought further evidence that the recent impressive recovery in the industrial sector of the economy is beginning to lose a little bit of steam. 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan makes the right move Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) today lifted its discount rate by 50bp to 13.0%. The move was a surprise but a rate hike has been the big risk for some time given double-digit inflation and the large... 30th July 2010 · 1 min read
