UK Commercial Property Update Short-term prospects for industrial rents still subdued Forward-looking indicators of industrial production have cooled a little, though there are some better signs for employment in this sector. The latter suggests that the floor for industrial rental... 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal squeeze to slam the brakes on consumer spending We expect the fiscal tightening to leave real household disposable incomes falling by 1% next year and stagnating in 2012 the tightest squeeze since the mid-1970s. As a result, we no longer expect... 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Heavy industry leading slowdown The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that commodity-intensive heavy industry is slowing, but other sectors are helping to cushion the downturn. 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ survey refutes claims of a credit crunch The Bank of Japan’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey confirms that banks are more than willing to lend. Demand for loans remains weak, especially from firms, but there is no support here for the... 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s short-lived trade surplus with China Japan’s trade surplus with China in the first quarter is not enough to justify talk of a fundamental shift in the balance of trade between the two countries. A closer look at the recent data suggests... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian recovery back on track... for now Recent data suggest that the economy is back on track for a robust rebound this year. Nonetheless, we suspect that Q2 will mark the high point for annual GDP growth and the pace of recovery is likely... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2 10) The tone of today’s RICS survey was downbeat and is probably a timely reminder that commercial property occupier demand and rental values remain vulnerable to further job cuts. Although we still think... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will loosening market conditions lead to house price falls? On one measure at least, the amount of unsold stock on surveyors’ books is consistent with falling house prices. With sellers now seemingly outnumbering buyers, we expect that looser market conditions... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures put something a dent in recent hopes that the fiscal position is now on a clearly improving path. 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Pick-up in services inflation shouldn’t last Last week’s rise in core inflation suggested that the spare capacity in the economy still isn’t having much of an impact. Core goods inflation is now on a downward trend – but is being offset by a... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would an inflation target help? The success of “Your Party” in the Upper House elections has put the idea of an explicit inflation target for the Bank of Japan back on the policy agenda. A decent case can be made for at least a... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
