Africa Economics Weekly Buhari’s budget, Nigerian bank consolidation, Ghana GDP Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari laid out his 2019 budget proposal this week, emphasising that he plans to keep key policies unchanged if he is re-elected in February. A big bank merger in the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: President Buhari promises policy continuity President Muhammadu Buhari’s 2019 spending plan would cut the federal deficit and leave key policies unchanged. Given political uncertainties, however, today’s speech is a poor guide to policy... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to the IMF, Nigeria stuck in first gear Angola’s $3.7bn deal with the IMF adds to the evidence that President João Lourenço is making a real shift towards more orthodox policymaking and while growth will stay weak in the near-term, economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the OPEC deal mean for EM oil producers? The agreement between OPEC and other major oil producers to cut oil production is likely to act as a headwind to growth across EM oil producers next year. The Gulf economies will suffer the biggest... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) Nigeria’s economy accelerated very slightly in Q3, but conditions remained very weak. Headwinds, including low oil prices, are still building, adding to the downside risks to our view that growth will... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly MTN dispute underlines Nigeria’s difficult business environment An opaque out-of-court settlement between Nigeria’s government and MTN would do little to improve perceptions of the country’s business environment. Elsewhere; South Africa’s economy returned to... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The rebound in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in November is the latest sign that the economy is now recovering following a very weak performance earlier this year. Even so, we think that... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Taking the Long View: Africa in 2040 African economies will probably remain among the fastest-growing in the world over the coming decades. But slow productivity growth will prevent convergence with high income countries. Indeed, we... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB hikes, but cycle will end soon Hawkish rhetoric suggests that policymakers at the SARB will follow today’s 25bp rate hike with another rate rise in Q1. But we think that inflation will soon peak, and that rates will ultimately fall... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is probably overestimating the weakness of the manufacturing sector, which we think continued to recover in October. Flattering base effects created by the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African public debt: Red lights flashing Worries about Africa’s rising public debt have focused on Mozambique and Zambia, but the situation elsewhere is less stable than it first appears. Nigeria’s debt position, for example, is very fragile... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Nigerian inflation remained essentially unchanged in September, which supports our view that – despite recent hawkish language – policymakers will leave their key rate on hold over the coming months. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Election options come into focus Nigeria’s February 2019 election will offer a stark policy choice between stability under President Muhammadu Buhari and liberalising reforms under opposition leader Atiku Abubakar. While the vote... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC shifts tone (again) Nigerian policymakers struck a hawkish tone today, but we doubt that rate hikes are on the cards. Inflationary pressures are probably not as worrying as Governor Emefiele seems to believe. Kenyan... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery remains on track Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Activity data suggest weak growth in Q2 GDP figures due next week will probably show that growth in Nigeria remained weak in Q2. We think that growth was probably about 2% y/y, essentially in line with the previous two quarters. 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
