Africa Economics Update Africa: Rand driven by politics, most markets strengthen South Africa’s ongoing political drama caused the rand to wobble this month, but the currency soon stabilised. Equities across the region performed well, with Nigerian stocks leading the charge. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Zuma, health concerns put politics centre stage Events over the past month have raised questions about the positions of the presidents of Sub-Saharan Africa’s three largest economies. Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari missed a key speech... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN holds rates, but hints that cuts are coming Nigeria’s central bank held its key rate on hold again, but we expect that policymakers will cut rates later this year as inflation slows and the economy remains weak. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Recession continues, but non-oil GDP picks up Nigeria’s economy continued to contract in Q1, albeit at a slowing rate. Fading problems in the oil sector and the improvement of the non-oil sector suggest that growth will return in Q2. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Narrow budget deficit obscures fiscal strains Despite some fiscal loosening, we expect that Nigeria’s federal budget deficit will be just 2.5% of GDP in 2017. But this measure provides a misleading sense of the country’s fiscal health. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria & Angola: Light at the end of the tunnel After a year of contraction, the economies of Nigeria and Angola are finally recovering. Growth will stay weak by recent standards, but will probably outpace overly-bearish consensus expectations. 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers playing catch-up after de facto devaluation Recent reforms to Nigeria’s FX regime have further complicated an already convoluted system, which includes a variety of exchange rates. In this Watch, we provide an overview of the state of the FX... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC hints at shift to more orthodox policymaking Today’s MPC statement suggested that policymakers are – at the very least – considering a shift towards tightening monetary conditions. The communication was, as ever, a bit unclear. We do not expect... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s inflation figures offer the first sign that inflation has peaked. We expect that price growth will weaken this year, but will remain above the CBN’s target. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Talking the talk Nigeria’s Economic Growth & Recovery Plan (which was released this afternoon) provides a refreshingly honest analysis of the country’s economic problems & outlines a variety of sensible reforms. We’re... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Grim end to the year, but worst now behind us Nigeria’s economy contracted by just 1.3% in Q4 2016, confirming our view that the slump bottomed out in Q3. Growth will pick up in 2017, and may even be a bit stronger than most expect. he National... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New FX rate, no sign of full devaluation yet The introduction of another official FX rate in Nigeria is not (as many seem to suspect) the prelude to abolishing FX controls. Over the longer term, however, we still expect that a weakening of the... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria over the worst, but recovery will be slow Nigeria’s successful Eurobond issue late last week provided another sign that the economy is over the worst of the recent downturn. Hopes for a quick recovery, however, are likely to be disappointed. 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: latest data confirm very weak growth in late 2016 Data published over the past month provided further evidence that economic growth in the region was very sluggish towards the end of last year. Q3 GDP figures did, admittedly, show that growth picked... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Nigeria and Saudi Arabia pull OPEC output lower OPEC oil production fell last month, but this was partly due to temporary disruptions in Nigeria. Meanwhile, the group expects non-OPEC output to increase this year. 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira fix will prove unsustainable in 2017 Nigerian policymakers seem committed to the FX policies that have strangled their country’s economy. The situation is, however, unsustainable. We expect that the currency will be devalued again in... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
