Africa Chart Pack Africa: Disappointing end to a painful year The latest figures from across Africa suggest that most economies in the region continued to perform poorly at the end of 2016. Activity data from South Africa suggest that the region’s most... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Ambitious budget unlikely to be realised President Muhammadu Buhari’s latest budget proposal is overly ambitious; we expect that both spending and revenue will disappoint. While Mr. Buhari presented his spending plan as way of lifting the... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Angola, Libya and Nigeria push OPEC’s output higher Further increases in output from Libya and Nigeria will make it more difficult for OPEC to reach their output quota of 32.5m bpd. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Tepid recovery as “Big Three” continue to struggle We expect that economic growth in Africa will pick up a bit in 2017 after a disastrous result in 2016. But the region’s recovery will be very weak, largely because of the poor performance of Nigeria... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Trump effect limited, but Zuma rocks the rand The effect of the US election result on African currency and equity markets seems to have been fleeting. In South Africa, though, the rand has closely tracked the possibility that Jacob Zuma could be... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Recovery yet to gain traction While we still expect that most African economies will pick up steam in 2017, the latest figures suggest that the region’s economic downturn has still yet to bottom out. Major economies across Africa... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN holds rates in face of “stagflation” Today’s MPC statement makes it very clear that the CBN is unwilling to hike interest rates in the face of inflation that is more than double the official target. The next move will probably be down. 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Non-oil economy recovers a bit as oil woes continue The improved performance of Nigeria’s non-oil sector is a very positive sign. But with oil output likely to fall yet again in Q4, it is too early to call the bottom of Nigeria’s economic downturn. 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Nigerian inflation accelerated to 18.3% y/y in October, which will put yet more pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy. We expect that the bank will hike its key policy rate from 14... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Nigeria and Libya push OPEC’s output higher Another rise in OPEC’s oil output in October underlines how difficult it will be for the group to agree on meaningful cuts at the end of the month, especially as US oil production is also rising. In... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Capital inflow figures cause for muted optimism The rise of capital inflows into Nigeria in Q3 suggests that the worst of the problems in the country’s balance of payments are over. But significant strains remain. 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Failed debt plan another blow to President Buhari The Nigerian senate’s decision to block the president’s borrowing plans may preclude an infrastructure-focused stimulus plan. The bill’s failure highlights the importance of boosting domestic non-oil... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Political risk takes centre stage Political developments across Africa have raised risk perceptions in several key economies. Allies of South Africa’s president made yet another attempt to force the resignation of Pravin Gordhan, the... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s banks look increasingly frail Concerns about the health of Nigerian banks have risen over the past month. Indeed, as we explain in this Watch, it now looks increasingly likely that parts of the financial sector will require... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production ramps up as Nigeria and Libya return OPEC production rose in September as Libya and Nigeria ramped up exports. Saudi Arabia’s output did fall, but this is likely to be a seasonal effect rather than a policy shift. 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
