Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele’s legacy As CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele’s term draws to a close, we’ve taken a look at how his controversial decisions worsened Nigeria’s recent economic crisis. Given President Muhammadu Buhari’s views on... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar.) Inflation in Nigeria remained strong in March, and will probably stay above target over the coming months. Even so, we expect that will probably continue their controversial loosening cycle. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fiscal fragilities building Nigeria’s fiscal position is much weaker than widely believed. Government plans to focus on foreign borrowing will add to currency risk. And evidence suggests that the central bank is helping to... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rate cut (another) hit to CBN credibility Today’s rate cut was another signal that Nigerian policymakers are prioritising monetary stimulus over their own inflation target. We doubt that this cut – which will probably be the first in a cycle... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Growth will slow in 2019 The first figures from Q1 support our view that economic growth in Nigeria will be slower than most expect this year. Rather than accelerating, weakness in the oil sector, tight fiscal policy, and... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Buhari win sets stage for slow growth Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari’s clear win in last weekend’s election will almost certainly result in the continuation of his interventionist economic policies, which are widely seen to have... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Early results point to narrow win for Buhari Results released so far suggest that Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari probably won Saturday’s election. Another term for Mr. Buhari would mean the continuation of his growth-sapping policies. 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria actually goes to the polls, South Africa budget History suggests that, if Nigeria’s delayed election on Saturday passes peacefully, the stock market is likely to see a temporary bounce. But over a longer time horizon, global factors are likely to... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria goes to the polls, South Africa awaits budget speech Nigeria’s presidential election on Saturday offers a choice between two clearly distinct policy options. The result will be close, with the winner probably announced on Monday. Elsewhere, South Africa... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s economy accelerated to 2.4% y/y in Q4, but momentum in the non-oil sector remained very weak. Low oil prices will weigh on growth in 2019, but the longer-term outlook depends heavily on the... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Nigeria: Election offers chance for big policy shift On Saturday, Nigerian voters will face a choice between two radically different policy options. A win for opposition leader Atiku Abubakar would boost local markets, but he would probably struggle to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Manufacturing PMIs in South Africa and Nigeria both pointed to weak growth in January. Forward-looking measures, however, support our view that growth in South Africa will pick up later this year. 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Monetary policy hinges on election result Nigerian policymakers held their key rate at 14.00% today, and reiterated their support for the closely managed FX system. The controversial FX regime will almost certainly remain in place, unless a... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB turns dovish, Nigerian opposition flip-flops on reforms Policymakers in South Africa toned down their hawkish language at their meeting this week, suggesting that rate hikes are now off the agenda. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s leading opposition politician laid... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
