Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Budget plan underlines fiscal problems Nigeria’s latest budget plan has strengthened our view that the fiscal position is unsustainable and that the country will face some kind of debt crisis within five years. 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Aug.) Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in August, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate in November. 17th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy stuck in second gear Disappointing Q2 GDP figures out today underlined the weakness of Nigeria’s economy. This supported our below-consensus view that growth will remain trapped at around 2% in 2019 and 2020. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria FX ban: Little price effect, big hit CBN credibility The Nigerian president’s call to exclude all food importers from the official FX market will probably be poorly-enforced and have little effect on inflation. But the government’s ever-expanding... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN puts faith in unconventional policy (again) Nigerian policymakers held their key rate at 13.50% today, and indicated that they will rely on unconventional policy tools to boost lending over the coming quarters. These are, however, unlikely to... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN rules unlikely to boost lending New regulations from the central bank will probably do little to encourage lending to the private sector. So long as government bond yields remain elevated, banks will prefer to park their money in... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Jun.) Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in June, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate next week. 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) Nigerian inflation remained, at 11.4% y/y, above the central bank’s target range in May, but policymakers will probably still cut their key interest rate in July. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rumours, South Africa recovery, Ethiopia reforms Despite this week’s mixed messages from Nigerian officials, we doubt that the country’s FX system will be reformed anytime soon. In South Africa, the latest activity data suggest that the economy... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Easing cycle will restart in Q3 Nigerian policymakers voted to hold their key rate at 13.50% today, but the governor’s suggests that they will continue to loosen policy later this year. The governor frequently stressed the need for... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Nigerian GDP growth slowed to 2.0% y/y in Q1, strengthening our view that the economy will perform worse than most expect over the course of 2019. We think that today’s weak result will encourage... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele’s legacy As CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele’s term draws to a close, we’ve taken a look at how his controversial decisions worsened Nigeria’s recent economic crisis. Given President Muhammadu Buhari’s views on... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar.) Inflation in Nigeria remained strong in March, and will probably stay above target over the coming months. Even so, we expect that will probably continue their controversial loosening cycle. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fiscal fragilities building Nigeria’s fiscal position is much weaker than widely believed. Government plans to focus on foreign borrowing will add to currency risk. And evidence suggests that the central bank is helping to... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
