Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery to remain stuck in first gear The pick-up in Nigeria’s GDP growth in Q1 was driven in large part by the oil sector and rising oil output will support a further acceleration in growth over the coming quarters. But FX restrictions... 24th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slight drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 18.1% y/y in April, on the back of easing food price pressures will provide some ammunition to the doves on the MPC and means that it is... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 18.2% y/y in March, will probably reinforce the views of the hawkish minority on the central bank’s MPC. Our base case is that the majority of MPC members... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: hawkish minority unlikely to become majority Policymakers in Nigeria opted to keep their benchmark rate unchanged at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting in the face of rising inflation and a weak recovery. We don’t think that a hawkish minority will... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal policy: the good, the bad and the ugly Nigeria’s budget deficit is set to narrow sharply this year as oil revenues increase and the government fails to meet ambitious capital spending plans. The shortfall should be easily covered by... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 17.3% y/y in February is unlikely to prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy as concerns about a weak recovery mount. 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: another unconvincing devaluation The reported (but unconfirmed) devaluation of one of Nigeria’s exchange rates would help to improve the public finances, but it would keep already strong price pressures elevated. We doubt that the... 3rd March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 16.5% y/y in January, on the back of surging food price pressures, is likely to increase pressure on the central bank (CBN) to tighten monetary policy. But as... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update High inflation limits CBN’s scope for easing, for now The recent rise in inflation appears to have stayed the hand of Nigeria’s central bank from delivering more monetary easing at today’s MPC meeting. But, as price pressures drop back towards the end of... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian policymakers in a bind, but easing to resume Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 11.50% today, highlighting the dilemma they face due to high inflation and a weak economy. But we think that the central bank will, on... 24th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of the protests in Nigeria If the recent wave of protests across Nigeria and the curfew in Lagos come to an end in the next day or two, the economic impact should be limited. But if these run on for longer, the recovery in the... 21st October 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Sep.) The increase in Nigerian inflation in September, to 13.7% y/y, will probably be followed by similarly high inflation readings in the coming months. The central bank is likely to keep its benchmark... 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s reform progress: a stock take Policymakers in Nigeria are taking steps in the right direction with recent market-friendly reforms, from liberalizing petrol prices to moves towards exchange rate unification. But the government hasn... 7th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN: economic weakness reigns supreme Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to lower the benchmark rate, from 12.50% to 11.50%, shows that policymakers have put aside their concerns about inflation and are increasingly... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) OPEC’s oil production rose sharply in August on the back of higher output quotas. However, if concerns persist about global oil demand, which was discussed at length at yesterday’s JMMC meeting, then... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Aug.) The increase in Nigerian inflation in August, to 13.2% y/y, will probably stay the hand of policymakers at next week’s MPC meeting. But, with a weak economic recovery, there may still be scope for an... 15th September 2020 · 2 mins read
