US Housing Market Update Lumber prices don’t undermine case for construction recovery The lack of a significant rise in lumber prices does not suggest that the nascent improvement in housing starts will soon fizzle out. The volume of lumber being transported by railroad has a much... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Despite the 0.3% m/m increase in consumer prices in March, favourable base effects still pushed the annual rate of CPI inflation down to a 12-month low of 2.7%, from 2.9%. The rate should fall to... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) Despite February's 2.9% m/m decline in export volumes, the past growth in monthly exports still indicate that first-quarter net exports managed to contribute positively to GDP growth. We estimate the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) & PPI (Mar.) In response to the unexpected narrowing in the trade deficit in February, we have raised our estimate for first-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 2.0%. Meanwhile, we doubt that that the... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada unlikely to raise rates anytime soon We think the Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise interest rates from the current 1% anytime soon. Not only does the marginal improvement in current economic conditions partially reflect temporary... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Borrowers making larger loan applications The $20,000 increase in the average loan size that mortgage applicants are seeking from lenders over the past three months may be an early sign that buyer confidence is improving. This should provide... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets heading for a repeat of 2011? The recent slump in global equities is prompting comparisons with 2011, when the prices of riskier assets also fell away after a confident start. Our view is that the US economy will be more resilient... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets heading for a repeat of 2011? The recent slump in global equities is prompting comparisons with 2011, when the prices of riskier assets also fell away after a confident start. Our view is that the US economy will be more resilient... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Buoyant commodity prices net positive for economy The upswing in commodity prices since the global economic slump over three years ago has been an important part of Canada's recent economic performance. This is highlighted by the positive... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery remains solid The US economy still appears to be headed in the right direction. We admit that economic growth isn't going to be spectacular this year, probably around 2.0%. Nevertheless, there would appear to be... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The disappointingly modest 120,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March, which was exactly half the 240,000 gain month before, mainly reflects some payback from the unseasonably warm winter. Between... 6th April 2012 · 1 min read
Energy Watch US natural gas prices to rebound despite supply boom US natural gas prices have fallen to around $2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) due to soaring supply and the mild winter in North America. But they now look far too low relative to... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The 82,300 increase in employment in March, which was the biggest monthly gain in three-and-a-half years, goes a long way towards making up for the disappointing run of jobs reports going back to the... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Are mortgage lending standards easing? There’s no doubt that mortgage lending standards remain tight. But there are some tentative signs that banks might be becoming a bit more willing to lend. This is a crucial development that will... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Could a surge in dividends boost the economy? If other firms follow Apple's lead in paying an annual dividend then, given the amount of stockpiled cash that the corporate sector is currently hoarding, the resulting boost to personal income and... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Coming hot on the heels of the slightly more encouraging mortgage applications numbers released this morning, the small rise in the CoreLogic measure of house prices in February is another sign that... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
