Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.2% m/m decline in February's retail sales values was disappointing but, given the news yesterday that wholesale sales increased by a much bigger than expected 1.6% m/m in that month, it still... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market stalls The modest 120,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in March, half the pace of job creation in February, prompted fears that the recovery could be faltering again. The rise in weekly initial... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada hoping for the best The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report paints a fairly upbeat picture for GDP growth this year and next. We think that this is unlikely to materialise, however, mainly because of the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Resilience of consumption growth may not last The likely acceleration in consumption growth in the first quarter is encouraging, especially at a time when the recovery in the industrial sector appears to be running out of steam. But while we do... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) March's sharp drop in headline consumer price inflation, to 1.9% from 2.6%, and the decline in the official 'core' inflation figure, to 1.9% from 2.3%, supports our view that the Bank of Canada is... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) March’s decline in existing home sales probably reflects the normal month by month volatility rather than renewed underlying weakness. The increase in households’ confidence in the outlook for the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to signal a move in either direction We doubt that the FOMC's upcoming two-day meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 25th April, will throw up any major changes. The minutes from the last meeting revealed little appetite among Fed... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada signals possible rate increases The Bank of Canada's policy statement, which pledged to keep interest rates at 1.0% for now, signalled that some small increases might soon be needed. This hawkish change from last month’s fairly... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The soft industrial production and housing starts figures for March add to the evidence that economic growth may have eased towards the end of the first quarter. 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) The UK has now experienced about four years of below-average productivity growth. We remain sceptical that this means that productivity growth has been permanently damaged. So we still think that a... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turn in the US profit cycle looms US corporate profits have grown significantly in the nearly three years since the end of the last recession. Admittedly, there are structural reasons why the share of profits in corporate output may... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weather won't keep US natural gas prices down for long The bulk of the decline in the price of US natural gas, from $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) early in 2010 to around $3 at the start of 2012, can be explained by the surge in supply. But... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) & Empire State Index (Apr.) Households appear to be contributing more to the economic recovery just at a time when the industrial recovery seems to be running out of stream. Some of the strength in consumption in the first... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The annual growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates slowed only marginally in March, with the growth rate of our measure of M3 easing from 6.1% to a still very healthy 5.8% last month. 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's exporters are not lagging behind Canada's export and overseas investment performances over the last two decades or so indicate in our view that Canadian businesses/exporters have actually done fairly well. This broader take on 'trade... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The hidden fiscal boost The rebound in tax receipts means that, for the first time in three years, State and local governments might soon be in a position to boost their spending. Over the next couple of years, this may... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
