US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) The 2.6% m/m rise in housing starts in April, alongside the big upward revisions to earlier data, supports our view that housing is in recovery mode. Driven in particular by the multi-family sector... 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Presidential election may make QE3 even less likely A look back at history throws cold water over suggestions that the Fed tends to alter its behaviour ahead of Presidential elections. Nonetheless, with political hostility towards the Fed currently... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Apr.) Falling energy prices and favourable base effectspushed the annual CPI inflation rate down to a 12-month low of 2.3% in April, from 2.7%. Headline CPI inflation will fall below 2.0% over the next few... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update When will equities triumph over bonds again? US government bonds have fared much better than the US stock market since the beginning of this century. However, this trend is probably nearing an end. Admittedly, we do not expect equities to start... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Canada's outperformance may not last much longer Canada's stronger economic performance over the last few years is largely explained by its stable banking sector, the continued boom in its housing market and, to a much lesser extent, buoyant... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate expectations still too high The recent hiking of market interest rate forecasts, which was prompted by the Bank of Canada's more hawkish policy statement a few weeks ago, looks increasingly like an over-reaction. While rate... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling gasoline prices to support the recovery At least some of the recent easing in economic growth is due to the surge in gasoline prices earlier in the year. The most recent fall in gasoline prices should therefore prevent a more sustained or... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's surprising 58,200 gain in employment, which follows an almost equally impressive gain in the prior month (see chart), is welcomed news given the unusually weak figures that preceded it... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The sharp rise in imports in March is unlikely to be a sign that domestic demand has strengthened markedly. Nonetheless, imports are still likely to grow at a faster pace than exports this year... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) March's trade figures show an encouraging pick-up in both export and import volumes. With first-quarter growth in exports outpacing imports, we calculate that net trade contributed positively to GDP... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing market continues to raise eyebrows The surprisingly strong surge in housing starts, to 244,900 annualised in April, is yet another sign that Canada's housing market is dangerously overheating. Admittedly, starts have only recovered to... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Plenty more home sales pending March’s further fall in home sales is a potentially worrying sign that the improvement in housing market activity is already petering out. But we are encouraged by the fact that pending home sales are... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) House prices rose in March and based on leading indicators, the short-term trend could strengthen further in the coming months. Over the year as a whole, however, house prices are more likely to... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth set to rise this quarter before fall back We estimate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualised from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. In addition to weaker growth in consumption and business investment in the first... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Demand for credit strengthening There are still fears of another sharp summer slowdown in economic growth, particularly after another disappointing gain in payrolls in April, but we think that the recovery will hold up better this... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth steady, US-Europe divergence persists Business surveys for April suggest the global economy began the second quarter at a steady but subdued growth rate of around 3%. They also suggest the divergence between moderate growth in the US and... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
