US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic Prices & Mortgage Apps. (Jan./Feb.) We’ve been expecting house prices to stop falling soon and January’s CoreLogic index provided the first tentative sign that this is happening. But the continued weakness of mortgage applications... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economic growth likely to slow further in 2012 Canada's economy grew by 2.5% in 2011, down from the 3.2% rebound in the year before. Both households and businesses contributed 1.5 percentage points to overall growth last year. While the government... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Sustained fall in inflation underway Inflation will climb further in most major economies over the coming months, reflecting both higher energy prices and higher food prices. The peaks should still be lower than those in 2008 as long as... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing is healing Lingering constraints on demand and the overhang of foreclosures mean that the healing of the housing market will be a long and gradual process, but it does at least appear to be underway. Home sales... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed waiting to see which way the recovery breaks Next Tuesday's FOMC meeting (13th March) is expected to be a quiet affair, with Fed officials waiting to see whether the recent improvement evident in the labour market develops into a more vigorous... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Banking sector getting stronger Much attention has focused on the surge in European banking stocks since the ECB first announced its LTRO bank lending scheme. But over the same period, US banking stocks have also risen by 20%. And... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2011) Despite the slowdown in fourth-quarter GDP growth, to 1.8% annualised from an upward revised 4.2% in the third quarter, the details on household spending and business investment were more encouraging... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manu. & Personal Income/Spending (Feb./Jan.) Today’s batch of data casts doubt over hopes that the economy has finally embarked on a strong and sustained recovery. When taken together, the figures support our view that annualised GDP growth in... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions still improving The labour market appears to have strengthened markedly over the last few months, with non-farm payrolls increasing by a 10-month high of 243,000 in January and the unemployment rate falling to a... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch More policy stimulus expected in the second half of this year While it is widely expected that the Bank of Canada will maintain its policy interest rate at 1% next week, with the same decision now likely at the next meeting in April too, we still think that the... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) Despite surging gasoline prices, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence shot up to a 12-month high of 70.8 in February, from 61.5 last month. The latest increase presumably reflects the... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Q4) Although the rate at which house prices are falling accelerated at the end of last year, it may only be a few more months before the decline seen over the last five years comes to an end. We expect... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Jan.) The 4.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders in January, which more than reversed a 3.2% m/m gain in December, suggests that the expiry at the end of last year of the accelerated tax allowances for... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Conflicting aims of REO and mortgage fee-raising policies The Administration’s housing policies are still not adequately addressing the fact that housing supply is too high and that demand is too low. The new details of the plan to sell REOs to investors to... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Low vacancy rates don't mean what you might think The low rental vacancy rate in Canada is often linked to strong immigration growth and presented as a reason why the current strength in new condo sales and multi-unit construction can be sustained in... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise in oil price not big enough to pose a threat The recent resurgence in the price of crude oil has led to speculation that, in a repeat of what happened at this time last year, a spike in energy prices could undermine real economic growth just... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
