The labour market appears to have strengthened markedly over the last few months, with non-farm payrolls increasing by a 10-month high of 243,000 in January and the unemployment rate falling to a three-year low of 8.3%. Our econometric model, which is based on a range of monthly indicators, points to an only slightly more modest 220,000 gain in payrolls in February, which would probably still be enough to push the unemployment down to 8.2%.
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