Asset Allocation Update Lower valuations may help European equities outperform Their net fall since the invasion of Ukraine means the valuations of European equities are now even lower relative to those of US stocks. While valuations have a mixed track record at predicting... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose last week but remained historically low for the time of the year. Demand took a tumble and will probably struggle to rise much further with gasoline prices so high. 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) While the price increases in February were not as broad-based as in January, they nevertheless caused all three of the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures to rise further and suggest that, even... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The muted 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales in February was largely offset by the upward revision to January’s gain which, overall, suggests that real consumption growth remains solid. With the sharp drop... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession risks still contained The earlier spike in crude oil prices, slump in stock markets and the flattening of the Treasury yield curve have prompted fears that US economy is headed for a 1970s-style stagflation, but our... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Industrial returns to hit 20% in 2022 before plummeting We expect the robust investment activity seen last year, particularly in H2, to persist into 2022. Although this has competed yields to record lows in the industrial and apartment sectors, we still... 15th March 2022 · 22 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The sharp fall in manufacturing sales volumes in January was at least in part due to the impact of staff absenteeism amid the Omicron outbreak and, with hours worked across the sector increasing... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Feb.) The rate of commercial lending growth dipped a little in February but remained above its five-year average. That dip was due only to a slower month for multifamily, with net lending secured against... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to be more aggressive amid booming jobs market The surprisingly strong rise in employment in February reduces the downside risks to near-term economic activity from higher energy prices and reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada will now hike... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to kick off tightening cycle We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and, despite the war in Ukraine, to unveil new projections showing at least five interest rate hikes this year in total. 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The labour market boom resumed in February and the odds of a sharp acceleration in wage growth are rising, which would add to the pressure for the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates. 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rise in mortgage rates cools housing market activity A rise in mortgage rates to their highest since May 2019 has cooled housing market activity, with mortgage applications for home purchase dropping to a 31-month low in the last week of February... 11th March 2022 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Rising energy prices pushed the CPI inflation rate up to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and, given the spike in crude oil and gasoline prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it will climb well... 10th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Current account set for largest surplus since 2006 The surge in commodity prices means that, after ending last year in deficit, the current account is set to move into a surplus of around 1.5% of GDP in the first half of this year. 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Tentative easing in labour shortages Both job openings and quits have fallen back slightly over the past several months, which suggests that wage growth and underlying inflationary pressures should soon stabilise. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks in the US continued to fall last week and are now at a multi-year low for this time of year. The sharp drop in product stocks points to panic buying by consumers, while domestic crude... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
