Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada less optimistic on economy Despite a serious downgrade to its views on second quarter economic activity, the Bank of Canada opted to hold interest rates at 0.50% today and to remain neutral on the rate outlook, clinging to its... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack June rate hike far from a done deal The minutes of the April FOMC meeting and subsequent comments by various Fed officials have prompted speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. Treasury yields have... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) The 16.6% m/m gain in new homes sales in April was the biggest monthly rise since the start of 1992. A lack of existing homes for sale is driving the growing number of home buyers to look at the new... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How do the valuations of US and European equities stack up? Is the stock market in the US overvalued or undervalued relative to its counterpart in Europe? The answer largely depends on which metric is chosen and how earnings evolve. 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales rose by 1.7% m/m in April – a little more than we were expecting. But the overall picture from the last year has been of only limited upward movement. And while demand for homes... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Higher energy prices to lift headline inflation Our central theme that the Fed will be forced to raise rates much more aggressively than markets expect continues to unfold. The two deflationary shocks of 2015 – the surge in the dollar and the slump... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) The rise in the core inflation rate in April, to 2.2% from 2.1%, was slightly stronger than expected but still appears due to the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. As the weakness in the... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What if the Fed does hike again in June? Our central forecast is that US interest rates will be raised twice this year, probably in September and December, but we suspect that the chances of a hike on 15th June are rather higher than the 30%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What can homebuilder share prices tell us about housing starts? Homebuilder share prices have flat lined since early 2015, which could be a sign that the recent soft patch in housing starts is set to continue. But the past relationship between the two is far from... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch An interest rate cut still on the cards later this year We expect the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates at 0.50% next week and maintain a neutral outlook for future policy changes. Despite stronger economic growth at the start of the year and the... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Ind. Prod (Apr.) The 0.4% m/m increase in consumer prices was the biggest gain since February 2013 and reflects primarily a strong rebound in energy prices. More generally, the rebound in commodity prices we’ve seen... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) April’s rise does not alter the fact that housing starts have failed to deliver any sustained growth over the past year. However, with housing demand rising gradually and builders growing more... 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US Treasuries? While we continue to expect the FOMC to hike the federal funds rate by 25bp at least twice this year, two such increases are currently anticipated by investors in the bond market . We are therefore... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed falling further behind the curve While we didn’t think that the more modest 160,000 increase in payroll employment in April necessarily ruled out the possibility of a June rate hike by the Fed, the increasing probability that... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) & Consumer Confidence (May) The retail sales and consumer confidence reports show that recent claims of the demise of the US consumer have been greatly exaggerated. Thanks to a massive 0.9% m/m gain in control sales in April and... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More survey evidence of bleak growth prospects The dangerous wildfires that broke out in Alberta earlier this month haven’t changed the dismal outlook for economic growth this year. As the increasing amount of survey evidence indicates, the much... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
