US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.4% m/m decline in industrial production in May, which was slightly worse than consensus expectations, was largely due to a similar-sized slump in output in the struggling manufacturing sector. 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus A new equilibrium in the US stock market In our view, the equilibrium price/earnings ratio of the US stock market is now much higher than its long run average. Indeed, we think it is close to its current cyclically-adjusted level. If we are... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update No evidence of labour market downturn in NFIB survey The latest NFIB survey suggests that small businesses are still intent on hiring additional workers, even though finding suitably qualified employees is getting harder. Unfortunately, small businesses... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The strength of the May retail sales report should provide plenty of comfort to those concerned that the recent slump in payrolls would be followed by a downturn in activity. It still appears that... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation expectations are rising not falling The decline in long-term inflation expectations to a record low in the University of Michigan’s June consumer confidence survey won’t prevent the Fed from raising interest rates, not least because... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in payroll growth closely resembles the 2012 dip There are one or two genuine reasons to worry about the strength of the labour market. But the deeper we dig, the more we’re convinced the spring slowdown in payroll employment growth is a temporary... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence measure was broadly unchanged at an elevated 94.3 in June, which suggests the pick-up in second-quarter consumption growth will continue into the... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy production other shoe to drop Despite the rebound in oil prices this year, domestic energy producers don’t appear to believe in a sustainable recovery judging by the further decline in oil & gas drilling rig activity. Falling... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) While the employment gain of 13,800 in May and drop in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, from 7.1%, was better than most had expected, this was entirely due to hiring in the public sector, partly related... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories fell for the third week in a row last week thanks to lower net imports and stronger refinery demand. Notably, overall production rose on the week. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won’t move until labour market uncertainty clears The sudden stop in employment growth rules out any chance of a rate hike from the Fed at next week’s FOMC meeting, particularly now that the UK vote on whether to leave the European Union (EU) appears... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Weather forecasts heat up US natural gas prices Forecasts of an abnormally hot summer should continue to see strong demand for electricity supporting US gas prices. But high production and stocks will limit the upside. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) After seasonal adjustment, house prices dipped by a marginal 0.1% in April according to the CoreLogic index. But with supply conditions tightening further, we doubt this weak patch in house price... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales finally making some headway After treading water since the start of 2015, new home sales finally made some headway in April with the largest month-on-month rise since 1992. While that rate of growth is unsustainable, it provides... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDP growth will benefit from oil price rebound The recent rally in oil prices is a positive for the US economy insofar as it confirms that the drag from falling mining investment will fade by the second half of the year. And with households having... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Consumption growth likely to slow The recent pick-up in consumer spending growth suggests at first glance that households are in a position to carry the economy once again this year. But closer examination of the underlying trends in... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
