Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) The merchandise trade deficit narrowed by a smaller margin than expected in April, mostly due to a tepid rebound in export volumes. Given the potential for a decline in energy exports in May, it now... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack All eyes on the Fed and the UK referendum The weak US non-farm payrolls data for May and uncertainty ahead of the UK referendum on EU membership, scheduled for 23rd June, may push back the next Fed rate hike until July at the earliest, if not... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise in inventory-to-sales ratio not a recession signal The rising business inventory-to-sales ratio is not a signal of an imminent recession. The increase in the ratio of some specific components – machinery – is a potential problem. But much of the rise... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 38,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in May, which is still only 73,000 if we adjust for the 35,000 striking Verizon workers, means that a June rate hike from the Fed is now very unlikely.... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is mortgage debt set for another dangerous boom? The improving economy, combined with mortgage interest rates that will stay low by past standards, should usher in a renewed period of growth in the stock of mortgage debt over the next few years. But... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 51.3 in May, from 50.8, still leaves it at a level that has historically has been consistent with GDP growth of only 2%. But the services side of the... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) The slight fall in mortgage applications for home purchase in May looks in part to be down to some buyers bringing forward their applications to take advantage of mortgage interest rates that were... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The robust growth in bank loans and the monetary aggregates is another reason to believe that second-quarter GDP growth will rebound markedly. The growth rate of our M3 measure accelerated to 4.0% in... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Cons. Conf. (May) & Pers. Spending (Apr.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 92.6 in May, from 94.7, could potentially be the first signal that the presidential election is beginning to weigh on the economy... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Mar.) At the national level, Case-Shiller reported that house prices rose by a modest 0.1% m/m in March. However, this weak patch in price pressures is unlikely to continue. Recent strong sales have led to... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2016) The pick-up in GDP growth in the first quarter might convince some that the worst effects of the oil price shock are over, but the details showed that business investment fell further, consistent with... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Q2 slowdown isn’t just about Alberta wildfires After a strong start to the year, the economy likely ended the first quarter badly and we now believe that it shrank significantly this quarter, partly because of significant disruptions to oil... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets still under-estimating pace of future rate hikes Markets are coming around to the idea that the Fed will raise rates for a second time either next month or in July, but still appear to be unusually sanguine about the prospects of additional rate... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The contrasting outlook for new and existing home sales Existing home sales as a share of population have been close to their long-run average since 2013. So while pent-up housing demand suggests they will rise over the next few years, the increase will be... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Verizon strike to hit May payrolls hard Our econometric model points to a solid 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, but after we allow for the impact of the Verizon strike and other temporary factors, the actual gain in employment was... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 3.4% m/m surge in durable goods orders in April was principally due to a 64.9% m/m jump in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component, which will probably be reversed in May. Otherwise... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
