Global Markets Update Petrodollars probably won’t save Treasuries this time The reinvestment of oil revenues into US markets probably helped avert a rout in Treasuries during the mid-2000s hiking cycle, but even with oil prices on the rise again we don’t expect so-called... 24th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude oil stocks fell last week, driven by a decrease in net imports and greater refinery inputs. Demand also inched higher, but we suspect high prices will limit further gains... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) New home sales fell for the second month in a row in February, as builders limited them to catch-up with the backlog of homes under construction. Higher mortgage rates will act to cool overall housing... 23rd March 2022 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack How the war in Ukraine has changed our thinking The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Inflation to fall sharply in H2 While the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil mean energy prices will remain elevated and push headline inflation above 8% in March, it will still fall sharply later this year. Energy... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Market-implied policy tightening could topple housing The surge in interest rate expectations is a key risk to housing. We recently set out how, due to the much larger share of variable rate mortgages than before the pandemic, the Bank of Canada would... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Update Will mortgage spreads keep rising? The jump in the spread between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield primarily reflects a rise in the credit risk premium as investors react to a slowing economy, surging inflation, and the... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Fed reinforces our case for a stronger dollar Even after its broad-based appreciation today, the US dollar seems set to end the week a bit lower against most major currencies. This is somewhat surprising given the FOMC’s hawkish tone on Wednesday... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed will deliver a further 150bp of rate hikes this year The Fed delivered on expectations of a 25bp rate hike this week but went further than we anticipated in pencilling in a further six 25bp hikes this year and four next. With their forecasts for core... 18th March 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) Existing home sales slipped in February, more than reversing January’s surprise increase. And the Fed’s first move on interest rates this week reinforces our expectation that existing sales will... 18th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jan.) The jobs recovery continued in January, but nearly two years on from the start of the pandemic, employment in most metros is still not back to its pre-crisis peak. And, in terms of office jobs, there... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Another record rise in house prices The second consecutive record monthly gain in house prices in February, as well as the further rise in consumer price inflation to almost 6%, means the Bank of Canada will be eager to continue hiking... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Retail sales made a strong start to 2022 and, while the hit to household purchasing power from higher gasoline prices is a headwind to further growth in sales volumes, the fact that consumer... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) Housing starts rose by 5.7% m/m in February following two months of declines. While a tight inventory of existing homes is supporting homebuilder confidence, shortages of labour and materials will... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Tweaking our forecasts for US Treasury yields We think the Fed’s tightening cycle will lead to the 10-year Treasury yield ending this year and next a bit higher than we had previously anticipated, although we still expect it to rise only... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Can the housing market handle higher interest rates? The rise in mortgage rates implied by our new higher policy rate forecasts would reduce affordability by 12% over the next year which, in isolation, is not especially alarming when considering that... 17th March 2022 · 4 mins read
