Energy Update Biden, Xi and energy market scenarios The US and China once again backed the G20 goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity this week (from 2020), a goal which would help to keep the path to net zero emissions by 2050 on track... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The US/China relationship and global financial markets With a lot of pessimism seemingly already priced in to China’s “risky” assets, we suspect any further thawing in US/China relations could give them a boost. But we think their longer-term outlook is... 17th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch. (Nov.) The fall in new listings in October may ease some concerns about forced home sales but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio declining again, it is still likely that the pace of house price declines... 16th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Another downgrade to the consensus, but still too sanguine Our forecasts for commercial real estate values remain well below consensus, even after the latest downgrade. While our sector rankings are consistent with the consensus, we are predicting a more... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Biggest post-CPI yield fall in a year may be just the start While past dips in the 10-year Treasury yield since inflation peaked proved to be short lived, we think that yield will continue to fall from here. 14th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The softer 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in October makes it even less likely that the Fed will raise rates any further, and we expect a continued decline in inflation over the coming months... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US sovereign risk; markets vs Moody’s Moody’s decision to revise down its outlook for the US sovereign credit rating may add to the growing sense that market participants are becoming more worried about the fiscal outlook in the US. So... 13th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct) The second consecutive monthly decline in outstanding commercial real estate loan balances held by US banks in October means the data are starting to reflect the pullback in real estate lending that... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal versus monetary policy and the outlook for Treasuries Although yesterday’s poorly digested auction of 30Y Treasuries served as a reminder that the outlook for fiscal policy has the potential to undermine US long-dated government bonds, we still think... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Energy disinflation; credit conditions still tight Despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, crude oil prices have slumped. The upshot is that headline CPI inflation, which rebounded from a low of 3.1% in June to 3.7% in September, should be back... 10th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank unlikely to follow through with hawkish message The Bank of Canada’s latest Summary of Deliberations was more hawkish than most probably expected, with some members of the Governing Council still seemingly arguing for further rate hikes. That said... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024-27 completions to be below pre-pandemic levels With vacancy set to stay elevated, development finance remaining expensive, and values to continue falling next year, we expect construction starts will be weak in all sectors over the next 12 months... 10th November 2023 · 3 mins read
