Canada Chart Pack Weaker new home sales to drag down construction The extent of the downturn in the housing market and broader residential investment will determine whether the economy enters a recession in the next 12 months, and in that respect there has been some... 26th July 2022 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2022) NCREIF total returns fell back again in Q2, dropping to 3.2% q/q from their end-2021 peak of over 6%, as higher interest rates and weaker growth hit property performance. We expect the remainder of... 26th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation finally peaks CPI inflation has finally peaked but this will not be enough to prevent further large interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, especially as there is little evidence yet that the weakening housing... 22nd July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office conversions most likely in high land cost metros The contrast between the strong performance of the apartment sector and the weak performance of offices in the last two years has made office-to-residential conversions more viable, but the numbers... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) Retail sales rose by a bit more than we anticipated in May, but the preliminary estimate implies that most of the gain in sales volumes was reversed in June and the slump in consumer confidence... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to hike by 75bp despite weak GDP growth Fed officials may have briefly contemplated an even bigger hike following the news of the further surge in inflation in June but, with inflation expectations dropping back and the incoming news on... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect “high-beta” DM currencies to fall further Despite their recent rebound, we still think that “high-beta” developed market currencies will weaken further against the US dollar for the remainder of the year. 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to remain muted in H2 The incoming activity data now show clearer signs of weakness, particularly in the most interest-rate sensitive components of spending. But there are still few signs of that moderation morphing into a... 21st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks fell last week, largely on the back of a rise in exports and a drop in imports. The fall came despite another bumper release from the strategic reserve. As those government stock... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales dropped again in June, taking them to below their pre-COVID peak. With affordability looking as stretched as it was during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), home buyer sentiment... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increased risk of recession The Bank’s aggressive policy tightening will weigh heavily on domestic demand, with consumption growth set to slow sharply while residential investment plunges back to pre-pandemic levels. There is... 20th July 2022 · 20 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Despite the further rise in inflation to a multi-decade high, the June data showed some encouraging signs, with the monthly price gains slowing across almost every category. Inflation will begin to... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Another 75bp hike on the way The Fed is set to hike interest rates by 75bp at next week’s FOMC meeting, taking the target range to between 2.25% and 2.50%. Officials won’t rule out the possibility of a third consecutive 75bp hike... 20th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jul.) The further decline in home sales in June and the record monthly fall in house prices did little to affect construction activity, with housing starts once again outperforming expectations last month... 19th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Single-family housing starts fell by a sizeable 8.1% m/m in June, following a 9.0% m/m drop in May. With rising mortgage rates continuing to weigh on demand, homebuilder confidence plummeted in July... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
