US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jun.) CRE lending growth was again strong in June, but outside of the multifamily sector, there are signs the rate of growth may have peaked. And with investment transactions slowing, we expect a... 18th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s shock tactics carry significant risks The Bank of Canada justified its 100 bp interest rate hike on the basis that front-loading hikes has historically raised the chance of a “soft landing”. With the pace of house price declines already... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation up, but better news coming The bigger-than-expected rise in CPI inflation to 9.1% in June triggered speculation that the Fed might follow the Bank of Canada with a 100bp rate hike later this month. But the disappointing... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Stronger signs that office sector distress will grow The large-scale deterioration in office NOIs that we predicted would occur by the end of 2025 appears, on the face of it, to be some way off. But offices are the only sector seeing rising delinquency... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The decline in industrial production in June, led by a fall in manufacturing output, could reflect weaker demand for goods, but we suspect that it is also due to the zero-covid shutdowns in China... 15th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing activity contracts even as rates stabilise The upward trend in mortgage rates took a breather over the past month, but that didn’t provide much of a boost to housing market activity. Existing home sales have fallen for four months in a row... 15th July 2022 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the dollar’s rally With the DXY index surging to a fresh 20-year high, the US dollar has reached our end-2022 forecasts against several of the other major currencies. While we are sticking to our current forecasts for... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The impact of QT on Treasury yields We think “quantitative tightening” (QT) may put upward pressure on long-dated Treasury yields over the coming years. But we think that changes in investors’ expectations for the fed funds rate will... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales volumes plunged in May amid renewed semiconductor shortages, but there is scope for a more sustained rebound over the second half of this year, despite the worsening global... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even if inflation eases While we expect upcoming US CPI reports to be more encouraging than June’s one, we still think that the yield of 10-year Treasuries will rise further over the remainder of this year. 13th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank pulls out all the stops with 100 bp hike The Bank of Canada’s 100 bp hike today and its accompanying communications have led us to upgrade our forecast for the policy rate to 3.5% by the October policy meeting, from 3.0%. As the commodity... 13th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total crude stocks fell again, mainly due to ongoing sales from the strategic reserve. That said, the big news was hefty builds in petroleum product stocks, suggesting that high prices are finally... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger than expected 1.3% rise in consumer prices in June, which pushed headline inflation to 9.1%, from 8.6%, nails on another 75bp rate hike at the July FOMC meeting. But with commodity prices... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern metros to outperform Since the release of our previous Apartment Metro Outlook three months ago the interest rate environment has become more negative for real estate, and we now expect yields to rise in many metros this... 12th July 2022 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why this price correction will be nothing like the GFC Although we expect a comparable rise in interest rates to that which preceded the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we think the risk of a credit-driven bust in the commercial real estate market is low... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Strong demand for US natural gas to keep prices high After a period of extreme volatility, we expect the price of US natural gas to edge higher in the remainder of this year. Together, a rise in LNG exports and a pick-up in US consumption this winter... 11th July 2022 · 4 mins read
