Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil prices have been for a rollercoaster ride today, rising by $3 per barrel following the OPEC+ meeting, and then more than erasing those gains later on. Prices fell particularly sharply after... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jun.) There was little evidence of any slowdown in June’s job figures, but the deep divisions in performance at the metro level remained. Dallas and Austin stood out on a range of comparisons, while... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) Both refinancing and home purchase activity continued to trend lower in July, with the latter down by around 30% since the start of the year. Against a backdrop of stretched affordability and record... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages easing only gradually The sharper fall in job openings in June signals that labour demand is now beginning to ease more markedly, but with the quits rate little changed and no signs of a pick-up in layoffs, labour market... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) Although the ISM manufacturing index fell again in July, to 52.8 from 53.0, the rate of decline does at least appear to be slowing and, for now, it remains consistent with GDP growth of roughly 1.5%... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed hikes as GDP sinks The second-quarter decline in GDP was not quite as bad as it looked, and with the Fed sounding increasingly comfortable with continuing to raise interest rates through a period of weak economic growth... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tight supply limits threat from rising construction The current surge in homes under construction has few parallels with the building boom that preceded the house price crash in the late 2000s. The build-up of homes under construction has largely been... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for US markets We still expect a higher 10-year Treasury yield, lower S&P 500 and stronger US dollar over the remainder of the year, but have pared back our forecasts for the rise in yields and fall in equities. In... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) Although activity was stronger than initially estimated in May, the economy still failed to grow and the preliminary estimate suggests that GDP only crept up in June. Together with the weakening of... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loonie unlikely to have big bearing on policy outlook Governor Tiff Macklem has voiced concern about the inflationary impact of the loonie, but we doubt that a modest fall would prevent the Bank of Canada from pausing its tightening before the Federal... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment holding up better than activity We forecast that non-farm payrolls rose by 250,000 in July which would represent a continuation of the slowdown in the labour market, but would still be far from recessionary territory . 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q2) The 0.9% annualised fall in GDP in the second quarter is disappointing but doesn’t mean the economy is in recession. The decline was partly due to a huge drag from inventories, while most other... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2) The latest RICS survey for the US highlighted the steepest drop in confidence since early 2020, abruptly reversing the building optimism of recent quarters. This adds to the growing evidence that the... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There were large increases in both crude and product exports in the latest data, which will add fuel to lobbyists’ calls for restrictions on exports while prices are high. 27th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jul.) While the deterioration in the survey data and renewed inversion of the Treasury yield curve imply that the risks are rising, our composite models suggest that the economy is still more likely than... 27th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The jump in durable goods orders in June mainly reflected a surge in defence aircraft orders. Private equipment investment growth still looks to have slowed in the second quarter, although the latest... 27th July 2022 · 2 mins read
