Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There... 7th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s orthodox policy shift back underway with IMF The announcement of an agreement over a new IMF package for Egypt, coming on the back of the rate hike and devaluation earlier today, represents a shift towards more orthodox policymaking. While it is... 6th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Will Egypt's reforms fix the economic crisis? 1709722800 The Egyptian central bank has announced steps to tackle its economic crisis, including a large devaluation and a bumper interest rate hike. But will it be enough?
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Hike & Devaluation The announcement minutes ago from the Central Bank of Egypt that it has devalued the pound and hiked interest rates by a bumper 600bp, to 27.25%, shows that policymakers are committed to the turn back... 6th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Feb. 2024) February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But Egypt’s economy appears to be... 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ras el Hekma deal, Qatar’s LNG expansion boost The deal in which Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will invest $35bn in the Ras el-Hekma project will provide much needed foreign currency inflows for Egypt’s economy. But, even with this... 29th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Ras el Hekma deal paves the way for policy shift The $35bn deal struck between Egypt’s government and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will go some way towards alleviating acute balance of payments strains and pave the way for an enhanced... 27th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little... 26th February 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia’s unorthodox policy shift, Egypt’s Unified Budget Act While Tunisia's government managed to avert default this week by meeting a Eurobond repayment, it only did so by draining already low FX reserves. With the new central bank governor set to take... 22nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region... 20th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi public finances and fiscal outlook, Egypt-IMF latest Figures published this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 and we expect another deficit this year. While the government shouldn’t struggle to finance this, if oil prices... 15th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain dollar bond issuance, Egypt softening the blow Bahrain became the latest EM dollar bond issuer this week, and the $2bn raised will help it to meet large upcoming debt repayments. But officials still need to tighten fiscal policy over the coming... 8th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for a fourth consecutive month, easing from 33.6% y/y in December to 29.9% y/y in January. We think inflation will continue to slow this year, but a looming... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs: Gulf a bright spot, Israel-Hamas war weighs on Egypt January’s batch of PMIs showed that activity across non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf eased a touch at the start of the year, but activity remains robust and will support the broader economic... 5th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes interest rates as new IMF deal edges closer Events in Egypt yesterday, including a large interest rate hike and comments that a disbursement of more IMF funding is close, suggest that a shift towards more orthodox policy is nearing. If a new... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
