Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt and the IMF, Red Sea disruptions and the Gulf

IMF officials have been in Egypt this week to discuss a new financing package and, while no news has emerged yet, the accelerating depreciation of the pound on the parallel market underscores Egypt’s...

25th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s crisis worsening, Saudi-BRICS membership

The past week brought further evidence that strains in Egypt’s balance of payments are ratcheting up, underscoring the need to get the mooted enhanced IMF deal over the line. Elsewhere, the statement...

18th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s IMF deal, Saudi’s fiscal position and bond issuance

An expansion of Egypt’s IMF deal appears to be edging closer following meetings between its government and the Fund and US Treasury this week. A shift back towards economic orthodoxy, including the...

11th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec. 2023)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate eased for a third consecutive from 34.6% y/y in November to 33.6% y/y in December. Comments last night suggest that an enhanced IMF deal is near, which is likely to...

10th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria deficit, Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Kenya GDP

Nigeria’s 2024 budget, signed into law this week, included encouraging signs that the government will cease deficit monetisation, providing hope that the Tinubu administration’s reform momentum hasn’t...

5th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt fiscal tightening, PMIs, regional tensions brewing

The announcement by Egypt’s government of a raft of price hikes will help to offset the impact on the budget position from surging debt servicing costs and lay the ground for getting an improved IMF...

4th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s economic struggles look set to persist

In the past few years, Egypt’s economy has been hit by the successive impacts of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and, more recently, currency devaluations. With further currency falls on the cards...

3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Suez Canal & al-Sisi re-elected, Kuwait’s Emir, Qatar budget

Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea have already caused traffic through the Suez Canal to fall, which will put a dent in Egypt’s revenues and could intensify the country’s external strains...

21st December 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2023)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

18th December 2023 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt post-election policy shift? Saudi gigaproject delays

Inflation in Egypt slowed further in November but, with President al-Sisi all but certain to be confirmed as the winner of the recent election, policy moves over the coming weeks and months will...

14th December 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Another year of sluggish growth

Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid...

13th December 2023 · 22 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s presidential election, Saudi budget approved

The result of Egypt’s presidential election that concludes next week is a formality, but once the vote is out of the way, it seems likely that economic policy will shift in a more orthodox direction...

7th December 2023 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

November PMIs

The batch of PMIs for November from the Middle East and North Africa showed that non-hydrocarbon private sectors in the Gulf have sustained strong momentum at the end of 2023. Elsewhere, while there...

5th December 2023 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt: currency, sovereign, banking risks intertwine

The falls in the Egyptian pound over the past year have increased the size of commercial banks’ net FX assets, but what has flown under the radar is banks’ growing exposure to the government’s FX debt...

29th November 2023 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North...

28th November 2023 · 1 min read