Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC meets, Egypt’s exchange rate policy OPEC’s biannual meeting kicked off today and all the signs are that the cartel will agree to an output cut by the time the meeting concludes tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Egyptian authorities have taken... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks can’t prop up the Egyptian pound for much longer The Egyptian authorities appear to have leaned on state-owned banks to sell FX assets to offset pressure on the pound recently, but this can only be sustained for a few more months at most. The... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slump and output cuts, Egypt’s IMF deal The recent slump in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, although it does look like policymakers will push ahead with an oil output cut at next week’s OPEC meeting... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf markets under pressure as oil slumps The recent plunge in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, but it has taken a toll on local financial markets. Brent crude has plunged from $85pb at the start of October... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank shrugs off rising inflation The decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its policy interest rate on hold confirmed that the MPC is paying more attention to weak underlying price pressures than the recent spike in headline... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation in October, taking it above the upper bound of the central bank’s end-year target range, raises the risk that policymakers will hike interest rates at this week... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC to talk output cuts, Tunisia rates, Egypt’s wage bill Rumours suggest that OPEC will discuss the possibility of oil output cuts this weekend, although a decision seems highly unlikely at this stage. But if oil prices fall further, as we expect... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Still some slack left in Egypt’s economy Egypt’s economy has grown at a robust pace over the past couple of years, but we estimate that there is still an output gap equal to 2.0-2.5% of potential GDP. Accordingly, as demand strengthens, the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Khashoggi scandal, Saudi fiscal slippage, Egypt tourism Saudi Arabia might be patching together a face-saving statement over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khasoggi, but the affair will damage the country’s long-term economic prospects and another... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Missing Saudi journalist makes politics key economic risk The disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul raises fresh questions about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reputation as a reformer and political developments pose a growing... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 16.0% y/y last month was driven almost entirely by higher food inflation but, even so, it probably means that the central bank’s easing cycle will be paused for a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) Last month’s PMI data paint a mixed picture in the Gulf but we expect growth in non-oil sectors to pick up over the coming months on the back of fiscal stimulus. Elsewhere, the survey in Egypt... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle not over yet August’s rise in inflation and signs of weaker capital inflows swayed Egypt’s central bank to leave interest rates on hold last night but, if we are right in expecting inflation to drop back over the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf to enter EMBI, another Egyptian dollar debt sale? JP Morgan’s announcement that it will include five GCC economies in its EMBI dollar bond indices should provide a further fillip to foreign investment in the region’s financial markets. Even so, we... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 14.2% y/y last month, coupled with the backdrop of the recent sell-off in EM financial markets, means that the central bank will probably leave interest rates... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: fresh pound weakness still on the cards The Central Bank of Egypt appears to have intervened to support the pound in recent months, but we expect the authorities to loosen their grip over the next couple of years. We have pencilled in a 10%... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
