Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound strength unlikely to last The Egyptian pound has strengthened further at the start of this year but it is now making exports uncompetitive and, with support from high real interest rates likely to fade, the currency will... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE pauses for breath, but more rate cuts still in store In a surprise move, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold yesterday even though policymakers don’t seem to be worried by the recent rise in inflation. We think that the easing... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The jump in Egyptian inflation last month to 7.1% y/y was largely due to the unwinding of favourable base effects but it means that next week’s interest rate decision will be a much closer call than... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Egyptian inflation last month to 3.6% y/y still leaves the headline rate well below the central bank’s target paving the way for further interest rate cuts over the next twelve months or... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle has further to run The 100bp interest rate cut delivered by Egypt’s central bank today is likely to be followed by further easing in the coming months. While we expect inflation to edge up in the near term, it will... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation to stay weak, more rate cuts on the way The decline in Egyptian inflation to a 14-year low of 3.1% y/y in October raises the risk that the central bank lowers interest rates by more than the 100bp that we have pencilled in for Thursday’s... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further drop in Egyptian inflation in September to a seven-year low of just 4.8% y/y means that the central bank will press ahead with its easing cycle over the coming months. We now expect a... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weak inflation spurs another aggressive rate cut The Central Bank of Egypt shrugged off the market volatility following recent protests across the country and lowered interest rates by another 100bp, to 13.25%, at today’s meeting. So long as the... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: protests and the economic impact Protests in Egypt over the past few days have ignited concerns that the country is on the cusp of another period of political upheaval. Past experience suggests that this would be disruptive for the... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The decline in Egyptian inflation in August to a six-year low of 7.5% y/y makes it is almost certain that the central bank will follow up last month’s 150bp interest rate cut with further easing. We... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle resumes with a bang The Egyptian central bank cut its overnight deposit rate by a larger-than-expected 150bp last night (to 14.25%) and with inflation likely to fall further in the coming months, much more easing lies in... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we worry about Egypt’s external debt? The sharp rise in Egyptian external debt in the last few years has triggered alarm in some quarters. But it has been accompanied by a large increase in FX reserves, suggesting that risks are currently... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The drop in Egyptian inflation to a four year low of 8.7% y/y in July reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at its next meeting with a 100bp cut in the overnight... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) The sharp decline in Egyptian inflation last month, to a three-year low of 9.4% y/y, increases the chances that the central bank will soon resume its easing cycle. But policymakers will wait for... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s IMF deal: end of term report Egypt’s IMF deal has proved successful in helping to repair the country’s balance sheets, but many of the structural constraints facing the economy remain in place and will be extremely difficult to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices & Whole Economy PMIs (May) The rise in Egyptian inflation in May, combined with upcoming subsidy cuts, means that the central bank will almost certainly refrain from resuming its easing cycle in the coming months. Meanwhile... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
