Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The slight pick-up in Egyptian inflation to 4.5% y/y in February still leaves the headline rate below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range but, if we’re right in expecting... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to keep rates on hold until later this year The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) opted to keep interest rates on hold at its first meeting of the year and, with inflation set to rise over the next 6-9 months, we think policymakers will keep rates... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to continue cautious loosening cycle The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) unexpectedly moved to cut interest rates for a second consecutive meeting on Thursday evening and, with inflation set to remain weak, we think that the easing cycle has... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: lower inflation target would temper rate cuts The weakness of Egypt’s inflation reading for September is likely to prompt another rate cut at the central bank’s (CBE’s) next meeting. With inflation persistently undershooting the CBE’s target... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50bps at Thursday’s MPC meeting after a six month pause to the loosening cycle. Policymakers are likely to remain cautious about future easing... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to a nine-month low of 3.4% y/y in August increases the likelihood that the central bank will resume its easing cycle when it meets later this month. But with... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay below target Egypt’s economic recovery, a fall in the pound and a small rise in global oil prices are likely to cause the headline rate of inflation to drift up over the coming months. But it is unlikely to reach... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa all fell adding to the signs that activity in the region has plateaued amid fiscal austerity and continued virus containment... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external strains easing, but pound to weaken The worst of the strains in Egypt’s balance of payments is probably now over and the current account deficit should narrow over the coming quarters, but we still think that the pound will gradually... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE still reluctant to cut rates, for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers remained cautious about delivering more monetary stimulus. That said, with the... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to an eight-month low of 4.2% y/y in July, alongside easing pressure on the pound, means that we think an interest rate cut at Thursday’s MPC meeting is more likely than... 10th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap A closer look at frontier dollar bond issuance A handful of frontier market governments have issued Eurobonds over the past few months, but these could create vulnerabilities further down the line, particularly in Egypt, Ukraine and Bahrain... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.6% y/y in June and will probably rise a bit further over the coming months. Crucially, though, we expect inflation to remain below the mid-point of the... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The fall in Egyptian inflation to 4.7% y/y in May leaves the headline rate well below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range and, with policymakers’ focus shifting away from supporting the... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE holds rates as it keeps a close eye on the pound The Central Bank of Egypt’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged today was not a major surprise given that efforts to prop up the pound have taken precedence over supporting the economy. If the... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt returns to the IMF Egypt has become the latest emerging market to turn to the IMF for assistance and one of the priorities for the Fund is likely to be for the central bank to loosen its grip on the pound. That said... 27th April 2020 · 6 mins read
