Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rates to remain on hold until Q4 The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced it kept interest rates on hold on Thursday evening and, with inflationary pressures building, the CBE is likely to refrain from cutting rates in the near term... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egyptian pound’s rally to go into reverse The Egyptian pound has appreciated significantly since the devaluation in 2016 and there are signs that the strength of the currency is weighing on the country’s external competitiveness. We forecast... 15th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 4.8% y/y in May, the fastest pace recorded so far this year. But it remained below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range, supporting our... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price rally continues, tourism re-opening Oil prices hit their highest level in more than two years this week and, combined with higher oil output over the rest of this year, will help to rein in large twin budget and current account deficits... 3rd June 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) May’s batch of whole economy PMIs were a mixed bag suggesting that economic recoveries in the Gulf are struggling to gather momentum for the time being. But, with vaccination programmes strengthening... 3rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector to provide a boost to the recovery Egypt’s natural gas sector struggled last year as the slump in regional energy prices caused production and exports to fall. But the re-opening of key LNG infrastructure in recent months and prospects... 20th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate fell to a seven-month low of 4.1% y/y in April, leaving it well below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range. We think the headline rate will pick... 10th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate held steady at 4.5% y/y in March, leaving it below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range. There is a growing chance that, with the economy still... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's public finances on the right track Despite the recent rise in bond yields, we think that Egypt’s public debt ratio will resume its downward trend in the coming years. 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The slight pick-up in Egyptian inflation to 4.5% y/y in February still leaves the headline rate below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range but, if we’re right in expecting... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to keep rates on hold until later this year The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) opted to keep interest rates on hold at its first meeting of the year and, with inflation set to rise over the next 6-9 months, we think policymakers will keep rates... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to continue cautious loosening cycle The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) unexpectedly moved to cut interest rates for a second consecutive meeting on Thursday evening and, with inflation set to remain weak, we think that the easing cycle has... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: lower inflation target would temper rate cuts The weakness of Egypt’s inflation reading for September is likely to prompt another rate cut at the central bank’s (CBE’s) next meeting. With inflation persistently undershooting the CBE’s target... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50bps at Thursday’s MPC meeting after a six month pause to the loosening cycle. Policymakers are likely to remain cautious about future easing... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to a nine-month low of 3.4% y/y in August increases the likelihood that the central bank will resume its easing cycle when it meets later this month. But with... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay below target Egypt’s economic recovery, a fall in the pound and a small rise in global oil prices are likely to cause the headline rate of inflation to drift up over the coming months. But it is unlikely to reach... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
