Asia Economics Weekly New currency forecasts, trade war escalates, rate cuts While we had been expecting an escalation in US-China trade tensions, China’s decision to allow the renminbi to weaken through 7.0/US$ in response to Trump’s latest tariffs means events are moving... 8th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) The continued weakness of growth means that the central bank will likely opt for a more aggressive 50bp policy rate cut this afternoon. And while growth should recover from here, don’t expect a strong... 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the crisis in Kashmir? The fall in Pakistan’s stock market today is the first sign that investors are starting to become concerned about the escalating crisis in Kashmir. The most likely outcome is that tensions are dialled... 7th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Surprise rate cut in Thailand, more loosening to follow Weak growth and a strong currency were the main factors behind today’s surprise rate cut in Thailand. With the economy likely to slow further and the currency likely to continue to strengthen over the... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spiralling trade war and what it means for EMs The latest phase of the trade war is likely to have a relatively limited direct impact on EM exports. But with the US and Chinese policymakers upping the ante, the indirect effects via a hit to... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update What does the fall in the renminbi mean for Asia? Currencies from the rest of Asia have fallen back sharply following today’s drop in the renminbi to below 7.0 against the US dollar, and are likely to weaken further over the coming months. While... 5th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Indonesia has been suspiciously stable at around 5% over the past five years, and it was no surprise that it recorded another quarter of growth at close to this rate in the second... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Mixed Q2 GDP figures, China tourism clampdown For the countries that have already reported second quarter GDP figures, the numbers have been a mixed bag – growth picked up in Korea and Taiwan, but slowed in Singapore and Hong Kong. We only have a... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) PMI readings for Emerging Asia were slightly more positive at the start of Q3, but the big picture is that they remain low by past standards and there are few signs of a meaningful turnaround yet. 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (Jul.) Korea’s trade data suggest that a meaningful recovery in the external environment remained elusive at the start to the second half of the year, with weakness in the technology sector and slowing... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier sovereign bond rally likely to go into reverse The recent rally in frontier sovereign dollar bonds is unlikely to be sustained and we expect spreads to widen in Argentina, Ukraine and parts of the Middle East. 30th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Early signs that EM growth has turned the corner Having slowed sharply in Q1 and at the start of Q2, it looks like EM GDP growth strengthened a little in May and June. Even so, with China’s slowdown set to resume and the global economy more... 26th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS to loosen soon, Malaysia restarts rail project The recent deterioration in the economic data from Singapore adds weight to our view that monetary policy will be loosened before the central bank’s next scheduled meeting in mid-October. Meanwhile... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2) The strength of growth in Q2 more than offset the contraction in Q1, but with the economy still likely to face large external headwinds in the second half of this year, a sustained upturn is unlikely. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks concentrated in the usual suspects Economic and financial vulnerabilities remain low across much of the emerging world. But banking sector vulnerabilities are high in Turkey and China. And we are now explicitly forecasting a sovereign... 24th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia: rebound in inflation nothing to worry about The jump in the headline rate of inflation in Malaysia last month to 1.5% y/y from 0.2% in May, is unlikely to trouble the central bank (BNM). The rise was due to the effects of the elimination of the... 24th July 2019 · 16 mins read
