Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) Indian industrial production data for October suggest that the sector was struggling even prior to the government’s demonetisation measures. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia well-placed to weather Fed rate hikes For most countries in Emerging Asia an increase in US interest rates is not a major cause for concern. However, aggressive Fed tightening could cause problems in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Demonetisation could boost inflation over longer term We think that consumer price inflation dropped in November as the government’s demonetisation measures are likely to have led to some price discounting. However, demonetisation could boost inflation... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI looks complacent while waiting for clarity on demonetisation Having previously shown that it was willing to prioritise growth even at the risk of missing targets for inflation, the RBI’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold despite the downside risks... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s president on the way out, but crisis to persist It now appears only a matter of time until President Park Geun-hye is forced out of office. But even once she is gone, it will be a while before the political situation returns to anything like normal... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Time to worry about a foreign currency debt crisis in Asia? The sharp rise in the US dollar since Donald Trump’s election victory has led to renewed concerns over the rapid build-up in foreign currency (FX) debt in Emerging Asia. For most countries, FX debt... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s populist shift is bad news for the economy The recent shift by the military government in Thailand towards economic populism will help to shore-up demand in the short-term. But the stalling of economic reform is undermining the country’s long... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Dealing with demonetisation The liquidity-draining measures that were eventually introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deal with the rush of cash entering the banking system after the demonetisation announcement have... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high The EM manufacturing PMI edged down in November, but still suggests that conditions in manufacturing sectors are much healthier than a few months ago. Emerging Europe, in particular, appears to have... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The drop in India’s manufacturing PMI reading in November reverses the strength from October. Looking ahead, local manufacturers are likely to struggle amid the fallout from the demonetisation... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest conditions in the region’s manufacturing sectors mostly remained subdued in November. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets stabilise Asian financial markets have stabilised after falling sharply in the immediate aftermath of Donald Trump’s surprise US election victory. Looking ahead, we expect to see further falls in currencies... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) Today’s release of another set of strong GDP data requires two major caveats. The first is that the national accounts figures remain difficult to align with other indicators showing that activity is... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease Inflation in most commodity-producing EMs will continue to edge down over the coming months as the effects of previous currency falls unwind. This will allow policymakers in almost all of these... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
