India Economics Update BoP data show further strengthening in external position The narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1, along with another rise in foreign direct investment inflows, leaves the economy looking well placed to weather any sudden shifts in global risk... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export slump close to an end but long-term prospects subdued India's trade data for May suggest that the prolonged contraction in exports in US dollar terms has almost run its course. But with progress on the reforms needed to create a vibrant export sector... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q1) GDP figures published today showed growth in Sri Lanka picked up in the first quarter of 2016. However, we are wary of reading too much into the data, given the serious doubts that remain over the... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker shows that, having spiked at the start of this year, capital outflows from the emerging world have fallen to almost zero over the past couple of months. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The sharp rise in wholesale price inflation in May reinforces our view that there is little scope for further monetary loosening. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs well placed to weather a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU would likely cause ripples rather than shockwaves in the emerging world. Trade ties with the UK are too small to have a material impact on EM exporters. And while a... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) Today’s industrial production data suggest, in stark contrast to the upbeat message from the rocketing GDP figures, that Indian industry is still in the doldrums. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should Asia worry about Brexit? The referendum on Britain leaving the EU has dominated international headlines over the last week, with some commentators warning that a “Brexit” would have significant implications well beyond Europe... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation set to rise, but central banks in no hurry to hike rates Inflation looks set to rise in most of Emerging Asia over the coming year, but probably not by enough to worry policy makers, who will look to keep interest rates low to support growth. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor “Brexit” poses little risk to EM Trade South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Korea’s rate cut and restructuring plans The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly lowered its policy rate to a new record low of 1.25% today, marking its first cut since last June. The decision came a day after plans were unveiled for the... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation not enough to prompt rate cut Consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped in May, but not by enough to bring it below the RBI’s 5.0% target for March 2017. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle likely at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.50% today and, while the consensus is expecting further modest loosening later this year, we think that rates will remain unchanged... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will Vietnam’s exports continue to boom? Exports from Vietnam should continue to grow strongly in the short-term, helped by booming foreign direct investment into the manufacturing sector. However, the lack of spillovers from the dynamic... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are the risks for EMs? The wobble in financial markets in the emerging world since investors began to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy in May has been much smaller than in the past. The Fed, along with renewed... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Further cuts to repo rate unlikely The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its repo rate by 150bp since the start of last year, but we believe that it will now keep rates on hold not just at next week’s policy meeting but for the rest... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
