Asia Economics Update Malaysia: cutting our forecasts on new restrictions The decision by the Malaysian government to place the country under a two-week lockdown to slow the spread of the virus is likely to hit the economy hard. We are cutting our growth forecast for 2021... 12th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Jan.) Korean trade data suggest that strong export growth continued at the start of the year and reaffirm our view that exports will remain an important support to recoveries in Korea and across Asia. 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Rapid growth in Vietnam, vaccine rollout begins GDP figures for Vietnam should always be treated with caution, but data released before New Year show that the economy grew by an impressive 4.5% y/y in the final quarter of 2020. This brought growth... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: demographic “time bomb” to weigh on growth Korea’s population last year shrank for the first time in its history, underlining the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The poor demographic outlook is the key reason why... 5th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Chart Pack New outbreaks pose downside risks to 2021 forecasts Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand are all experiencing major new outbreaks of the virus, which pose a significant downside risk to our relatively upbeat GDP forecasts for these countries for... 22nd December 2020 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Making the case for EM EMEA and Latin American equities We expect equities in EM EMEA and Latin America to claw back some more of the ground that they lost this year relative to stock markets elsewhere, as some fundamental factors linked to the spread of... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect EM local currency bond yields to remain low Positive vaccine news has not changed our view that monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) will generally remain loose for some time yet. That is a key reason why we still expect EM local... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Fiscal policy in Sri Lanka, currency trouble in Thailand Although the crisis has led to a sharp rise in government debt, policymakers across Asia appear in little rush to tighten fiscal policy. The key exception is Sri Lanka, where a sharp tightening of... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: central bank to keep rates on hold next year The decision by Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.125% came as no surprise given the strong performance of the economy. We expect interest rates to be left unchanged... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: central bank has not finished easing yet The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its key policy rate on hold today at 2.0%, but the weakness of the recovery means further easing is likely. 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update US takes aim at Vietnam The US Treasury’s decision to label Vietnam a currency manipulator today is primarily a response to the surge in Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US. The next step is likely to be talks – with Vietnam... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the impact of a lockdown in Korea The Korean government is on the verge of introducing much tighter restrictions to stem the rise in coronavirus cases. We are not cutting our GDP growth forecasts yet, but the risks are now clearly to... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus What to expect in 2021 and how we differ from consensus Our forecasts for GDP growth across emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board. Even so, in many places, output will still be below the pre-crisis level until... 16th December 2020 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM LC sovereign bonds Although we have revised up our forecasts for economic growth in many emerging markets (EMs), we generally still expect monetary policy to remain loose, or be loosened further, to the benefit of local... 14th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan: central bank in little rush to raise rates Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) looks all but certain to leave its main policy rate unchanged at its current all-time low of 1.125% at its meeting on Thursday. With the economy performing well, there is a... 11th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Next year’s vaccine boost to vary across countries The race to secure and approve COVID-19 vaccines is in full swing and, while roll-out will generally be slower in EMs than in DMs, immunisation of vulnerable populations over the next year or so is a... 10th December 2020 · 11 mins read
