Asia Economics Weekly Economies in need of continued policy support National accounts data due to be published over the next few weeks will show that although many economies experienced record-breaking rebounds in GDP last quarter, output remains well below pre-crisis... 23rd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka on hold for now, more easing next year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left both its deposit and lending rate on hold at 4.50% and 5.50% respectively at its meeting today but, given the poor outlook for the economy, we think the... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How might the US election impact Asia? With the US election result unlikely to have immediate ramifications for US GDP, the main issue for much of Asia is how it affects trade policy. A Joe Biden presidency would be less confrontational... 21st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Oct.) Strong export growth in the first 20 days of October was driven by buoyant foreign demand for electronics, and exports now look likely to provide a boost to y/y growth this quarter. 21st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The US election and its impact on emerging markets Whatever the outcome of the US election, we expect that the trends of US-China decoupling and deglobalisation will continue. The election result could be pivotal for some EMs: a Joe Biden victory... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Problems mount in Malaysia Malaysia’s economy has rebounded rapidly from the crisis. However, headwinds are growing. Having been on the verge of being eliminated, confirmed inflections have surged in recent days. Meanwhile, the... 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thai protests a key risk to the recovery The renewed risk of domestic political unrest in Thailand following the declaration of a “severe” state of emergency could act as a further drag on the already beleaguered economy. 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bigger external surpluses put Asia under US spotlight The COVID-19 crisis has led to a ballooning of current account surpluses across Emerging Asia that is putting upward pressure on currencies. The shift to bigger external surpluses could also land the... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam in US cross hairs Vietnam has so far emerged as the biggest winner of the US-China trade war, as tariffs on goods from China have led US importers to switch suppliers. Vietnam’s exports to the US have doubled since the... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest bout of EM capital outflows Daily data suggest that foreign investors have been net sellers of emerging market bonds and equities in recent weeks, but there are reasons not to be very concerned. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to resume easing cycles soon With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way... 8th October 2020 · 36 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia in no rush to tighten, Vietnam rate cut Indonesia has signalled that fiscal policy will remain supportive of the economic recovery after it unveiled a budget for next year that envisages only a very small fall in the budget deficit... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid September PMIs, but recovery to lose steam September’s relatively strong batch of emerging market manufacturing PMIs suggests that recoveries in industrial production continued in September. But with the global rebound losing steam, growth in... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap The latest on sovereign debt restructurings Recent moves by Angola and Zambia to restructure their public debts (or seek to) are unlikely to act as a trigger for a wave of similar steps by other debt-distressed frontiers. Indeed, their... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recoveries entering a slower phase, China an exception The latest activity and mobility data indicate that the EM recovery has lost some steam in recent months and we expect the pace of recovery to remain slow-going in the coming quarters. The main... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
