Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Not much cause for concern in Mexico’s current account Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP on a four-quarter sum in Q4 and, with the worst of the falls in oil prices now behind us, we think it could narrow a touch further to about 1.5... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4) Mexican GDP growth accelerated to 2.6% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, but the economy has yet to really take off. With fiscal policy set to be tightened further over the course of this year... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexican industrial production growth accelerated to 3.0% y/y in December and it should continue to pick-up over the coming months as the manufacturing sector benefits from stronger US demand and the... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) Mexican inflation fell to a three-and-a-half year low of 3.1% in January and looks set to remain close to the central bank’s 3% target throughout 2015-16. As a result, monetary policy is likely to... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More budget cuts likely in Mexico Spending cuts announced by the Mexican government worth 0.7% of GDP are unlikely to be enough to compensate for the loss of oil revenues this year and further spending cuts are likely later this year... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico on hold but rate cuts still not out of the question Interest rates in Mexico were left unchanged at 3.0% last night and concerns amongst policymakers about the weakness of the peso suggest that cuts are unlikely in the very near-term. For our part, we... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Banxico can cut interest rates even as the Fed begins to hike We think the prevailing view that close economic ties with the US will force Mexico to raise interest rates if, as expected, the Fed starts to tighten later this year is wrong. Indeed, with lower oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where do we stand relative to the consensus? We have revised down many of our forecasts in recent weeks and, on the whole, expect GDP growth and inflation in Latin America to be lower than the consensus forecasts this year. As a result... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) Mexican industrial production growth slowed in November, but the bigger picture is that both the manufacturing and construction sectors are performing well and should continue to do so. As such... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexican inflation fell for the second consecutive month in December, confirming that it has peaked. We expect the CPI rate to fall further over the coming months, and to remain close to the central... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus The impact of the US shale oil boom on Lat Am There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) Another fall in mining output meant that Mexican industrial production growth was weaker-than-expected in October. But the bigger picture is that the rest of the industrial sector continued to perform... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight fall in Mexican inflation to 4.2% y/y last month suggests that the CPI rate has peaked and that it is on course to fall to the central bank’s 3% target by the second quarter of next year. 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
