Latin America Economics Update Q3 the low point for Mexican GDP We expect Mexico’s poor performance in the third quarter to be the low point for the economy. While GDP growth will struggle to top 1.2% this year, it remains on course to accelerate to over 4% during... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fresh falls in Latin American currencies Latin American currencies have tumbled against the US dollar since mid-October and in many cases they are close to the lows that they reached during the height of this summer’s market sell-off... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The worst is now behind Mexico The Mexican economy has had a year to forget, but the worst should now be behind it. While GDP growth may struggle to top 1.2% this year, we expect it to accelerate to over 4% y/y in 2014-15. This... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How much do external conditions matter to Latin America? Our new Indicator of Global Conditions suggests that most of the fluctuations in Latin American GDP growth over the past few decades can be explained by changes in the global macroeconomic backdrop... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s industrial recovery likely to outshine Brazil’s October’s manufacturing PMIs rose to exactly the same level in both Brazil and Mexico. But of the two economies, we suspect the recovery is more likely to be sustained in Mexico. 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation eases back Having picked up in several countries in the early part of this year, inflation has slowed in most of Latin America in recent months and is now back within its target range in each of the region's... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican central bank signals end of the easing cycle The Central Bank of Mexico (BANXICO) lowered interest rates to a new record low today but its accompanying statement gave a heavy hint that this would be the last cut in the easing cycle. With the... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Surge in Argentine equities is not all good news Several recent developments, including the growing prospect of a political regime change, have combined to send Argentine asset prices soaring. But gains in Argentina's equity market are also... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Debt overhang a risk on horizon for parts of Latin America Lending growth has continued to cool in most parts of Latin America over the course of 2013. Although the credit boom of the past decade has yet to be reflected in a significant rise in default rates... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is Mexico losing its fiscal discipline? Plans to run a substantially wider budget deficit in 2014 have raised concerns that the Mexican government is losing fiscal discipline. But while a spending splurge is a major risk to an otherwise... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weak activity data point to another Mexican interest rate cut The continued disappointing performance of the Mexican economy makes it is increasingly likely that last month’s interest rate cut was not a one-off. We have now pencilled in a 25bp reduction to 3.5%... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil and Mexican inflation falls despite currency weakness So far there is no evidence that weak currencies are pushing up inflation in Latin America. Inflation edged down in both Brazil and Mexico in September and it should fall further over the next six... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update PMIs add to evidence that Mexican industry will overtake Brazil September’s manufacturing PMIs provide further evidence that the decent start to the year for Brazilian industry was a false dawn. By contrast, Mexican industry appears to be finding its feet after a... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets find their feet after summer sell-off Latin American financial markets have bounced back in September, snapping a three-month losing streak. While the US Fed’s decision to delay tapering does little to change our fundamental view on the... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth accelerates in Q2 but falters at start of Q3 The raft of official GDP data released over the past month confirmed that, having slowed sharply since the start of 2012, growth in Latin America picked up pace in the second quarter of this year. We... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fed tapering and Latin America: a recap All eyes will be firmly fixed on today’s US FOMC meeting in anticipation of the announcement that the Fed will begin scaling back its programme of asset purchases under QE3. But for the economies of... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
