Japan Economics Update Russian gas export ban would hold back recovery If Russia decided to end all exports of natural gas to Japan, we suspect that Japan’s GDP would fall by around 0.5%. However, the hit could be larger as there is now less scope to reduce energy usage... 4th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: recovery in China but weakness elsewhere The S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI hit its highest level in over a year last month, but that was almost entirely driven by a recovery in China. The surveys softened across most of the rest of the... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp... 1st July 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Rebound in China’s PMIs likely to be a one-off We think that the recovery in China’s PMIs in June was driven by the lifting of virus-related restrictions rather than an improvement in underlying economic conditions. Accordingly, we think that... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly GST hikes add to inflation concerns The Finance Ministry’s announcement this week of hikes to GST rates doesn’t signify a tighter fiscal stance, but it does add to the upside risks to inflation. This reinforces our belief that the RBI... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Banks given more room to lend, housing vouchers Bank lending has been weak recently but that could soon change. Quantitative controls on loans were loosened further in Q2, giving banks room to ramp up lending as credit demand rebounds following... 1st July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI dropped back in June, adding to the evidence of a slowdown in the broader industrial sector. Meanwhile although there are tentative signs of price pressures in the sector... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs for June fell back mainly due to the weakness of external demand. We think weaker global growth will remain a drag on exports over the coming months and that the region’s industrial... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery will continue to disappoint The slump in industrial output and the stagnation in real retail sales in May has prompted us to lower our estimate of Q2 GDP growth. While the easing of the lockdown in Shanghai will contribute to a... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The Caixin manufacturing PMI hit a 13-month high in June and points to a jump in output as virus restrictions were lifted and supply chain conditions improved. But it still points to subdued demand... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2), Labour Market (May) & Tokyo CPI (Jun.) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is benefitting from the easing of virus restrictions, the outlook for the manufacturing sector is worsening. Meanwhile, the labour market... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (May) Base effects boosted y/y growth in India’s core infrastructure industries to a 13-month high in May. But stripping out base effects reveals that industry might be entering a softer patch after a... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Official PMIs (Jun.) The official PMIs point to a surprisingly rapid recovery in services activity this month after virus restrictions were mostly lifted. But this likely reflects a one-off boost from reopening and we... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Industrial Production (May 2022) The plunge in industrial output in May suggests that Japan’s recovery is disappointing yet again. The upshot is that it will take until the second half of the year for GDP to surpass its pre-virus... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect even higher yields and lower risky asset prices We think developed market government bond yields will rise further while equity and corporate bond prices fall further, as central banks press ahead with tightening and the global economy slows. Drop... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: on the mend Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
