China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jun. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 30th June 2023 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan agrees IMF deal, but will they stick to it? The agreement of a loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF today should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. However, past experience suggests that the... 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
India Economics Weekly Food price concerns come to the fore Concerns over a pick-up in food inflation have been growing in recent days given the spike in vegetable prices. The inflation picture could change very quickly given how volatile prices can be, but we... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen will weigh on corporate earnings We aren't convinced by the narrative that the recent surge in Japan's stock market reflects a genuine turnaround in the fortunes for Japan's economy. While firms still seem to be able to escape weak... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Jun.) The PMI surveys suggest that China’s reopening recovery continued to lose momentum in June. Downward pressure on manufacturing persisted. Waning fiscal support weighed on construction activity. And... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do as economy is holding up Although CPI data released this week showed a sharp slowdown in headline inflation, it’s clear that underlying price pressures remain strong. What’s more, yesterday’s retail sales data revealed an... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity (May 2023) & Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) The end-month data rush mostly affirms our view of the economy. The first fall in underlying inflation in Tokyo in more than a year is likely to be followed by consistent decreases in H2, while the... 30th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Latest data point to a weak Q2 The latest monthly activity data suggest that most economies struggled in the second quarter of the year. While tourism arrivals are continuing to rise, there are signs in a few places that the... 29th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: Latest data point to further interest rate cuts Vietnam’s export-driven economy improved slightly in Q2 but growth was still weak by historical standards. With the external environment likely to remain unfavourable in the second half of the year... 29th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We see Japan’s equities and the yen set for a U-turn We expect the yen’s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country’s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US-dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities are diminishing The sharp narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1 was largely due to the strength in services exports. Looking ahead, we think the deficit will narrow to 1.0% of GDP across 2023 as a result... 28th June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery needs help but isn’t dead yet China’s reopening recovery is struggling for momentum and quarter-on-quarter growth will be subdued for the rest of the year. But with policymakers likely to step up support soon, the economy should... 28th June 2023 · 18 mins read
RBA Watch Cash rate will peak at 4.85% by September While headline inflation plunged in May, we doubt that this will have assuaged the Bank’s concerns about soaring unit labour costs and rising inflation expectations. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our... 28th June 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May) The sharp fall in inflation in May raises the risk that Reserve Bank of Australia will not raise any further at the upcoming meeting in July, but we still think that mounting upside risks to inflation... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: The RBA's July meeting and the Australian economic outlook 4th July 2023, 7:00AM BST While inflation plunged in May, we still think the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates again at its July meeting – and push the economy even closer towards recession.
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
