Japan Chart Pack BoJ at the barricades While inflation is still far lower in Japan than in most places, rapid increases in the prices of some everyday purchases have made it a political focus. A Nikkei poll following the Bank of Japan’s... 21st June 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily The case for a weaker renminbi remains intact Although we now think policy rates in China will not be lowered further, we still expect the renminbi to weaken to 7.0/US$ this year. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets... 20th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Four reasons why we expect further falls in EM equities We think that stock markets in the emerging world will continue to struggle alongside their developed market peers over the next eighteen months or so, for four main reasons. Markets Drop-In (22 nd... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) Global aluminium production has increased steadily since the start of the year in large part owing to a rebound in China’s output. At the same time, demand is relatively subdued, which suggests that... 20th June 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Market turmoil tests RBI’s appetite for FX intervention Although the rupee fell to a record low against the US dollar this week amid a broad-based sell-off in global financial markets, it held up better than most other EM currencies. That’s probably down... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen to weaken further, domestic demand picking up While the Bank of Japan was clearly in no mood today to give any ground to the bond traders testing the ceiling of Yield Curve Control, it would be even less keen to effectively shut down the JGB... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s hot labour market, Sri Lanka’s tourism woes The Korean labour market is continuing to heat up, increasing the chances that the central bank will tighten monetary policy further over the coming months. Meanwhile, a renewed slump in visitor... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update A reprieve for Yield Curve Control The Bank of Japan gave no ground at all to bond traders today as it left all its major policy settings unchanged. Governor Kuroda was resolute in claiming that Yield Curve Control has no limits in his... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly GDP target unattainable, shipping disruption China’s statistics office is adept at massaging GDP data. But with many of the indicators that feed into GDP showing year-on-year contractions in April and May, even it won’t be able to deliver... 17th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, food security and inflation Shortages of food supplies and surging prices have led some EMs to impose export restrictions on key agricultural products, a trend that threatens to become more prevalent and serve to keep prices... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese refined output will only plug some of the gap Robust Chinese refined metal output, alongside subdued domestic demand, has combined with constrained refined output elsewhere to provide greater export opportunities for China. But there are limits... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit to persist India’s goods trade deficit didn’t widen in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – rather counter-intuitively for a major commodity importer. But that has now started to happen, and... 16th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: tightening cycle to be gradual Taiwan’s central bank today raised interest rates by 12.5bp (to 1.50%) and appeared to indicate that rates would be raised further this year due to concerns about rising inflation. But we think the... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (May 2022) Export volumes recovered a bit in May, but they are likely to stay weak in the near term until supply shortages dissipate and allow exporting automakers to ramp up production again. Markets Drop-In... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update How changes to yield curve control might affect JGBs We think the Bank of Japan will widen the tolerance band around its 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield target, and that the yield will consequently rise by around 25bp. But there is a clear risk... 15th June 2022 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (May) The May data suggest that a post-lockdown recovery got underway across most parts of the economy last month. It is likely to have progressed further in June. But the recent resurgence in infections in... 15th June 2022 · 3 mins read
