China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (May) Retail sales and fixed investment undershot expectations, and the property sector struggled. Industrial output improved slightly but is still fairly subdued. And although the labour market remained... 15th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May 2023) With the labour market still firing on all cylinders, we’re happy with our forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift the cash rate all the way to 4.85% by September. 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (May) & Machinery Orders (Apr.) The trade deficit narrowed for an eighth consecutive month in May as both import prices and volumes continued to fall. “Core” machinery orders rebounded in April, but that still points to a fall in... 15th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1 2023) The contraction in Q1 GDP means that a recession is now well under way in New Zealand. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our forecast that the RBNZ will shift gears and start cutting rates before year... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (May 2023) & Machinery Orders (Apr. 2023) 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ sell its ETF holdings at a discount? While selling its exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings at book value to the government wouldn’t impair the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet, we don’t think it would provide the boost to fiscal revenue... 14th June 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Broad credit growth slowed sharply in May and has now reversed almost all its reopening recovery. This poses a downside risk to growth and strengthens the case for additional policy support. 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Jun.) The PBOC has lowered its policy rates for the first time since last summer, reflecting growing concerns among policymakers about the health of China’s recovery. Friday’s State Council meeting... 13th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth mostly cyclical One reason for the slump in productivity is that the recent surge in working hours is producing diminishing returns. And we suspect that disruptions caused by the pandemic prevented firms from... 13th June 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the... 12th June 2023 · 20 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: Pause not an end to monetary tightening Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) left its main policy rate unchanged today at 21%, but we think this represents a pause rather than an end to the SBP’s tightening cycle. With inflation well above target... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) Headline consumer price inflation fell to a 25-month low in May and is likely to remain within the RBI’s 2-6% target range for the foreseeable future. That means the tightening cycle won’t need... 12th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recession delayed but not cancelled The economy held up better at the start of the year than we had anticipated, but we still expect it to enter a recession in the second half of the year. Even though underlying inflation probably hasn... 12th June 2023 · 17 mins read
China Economics Weekly Shift in risk appetite needed to revive property Rumoured plans to support housing demand by reducing the upfront cost of home purchases probably won’t be a game changer. New homes are already more affordable than they’ve ever been and yet... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
